SGPLAB

NFL · Team Correlation Results · team outliers · Last 3 Seasons

NFL Team Correlation Results

How much do two NFL team markets actually move together, priced off real odds rather than raw hit rates? Each leg is devigged from its own two-sided closing line; multiply the two and you get what the market implies if they were independent. Correlation is how far reality sits from that — i.e. how badly a naive multiply misprices the parlay. Flip either leg’s direction to negate it.

We compared every team against its own prices on 140 splits, and none of them stands out beyond what random chance produces at this many splits.

⌕
top 140 of 140
TeamComboGamesTeam %League %Diffvs prices
HOUHOU1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4129.3%14.8%+14.4%+14.1%
HOUHOU1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER414.9%21.0%-16.1%-15.7%
DENDEN1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS4037.5%18.9%+18.6%+15.7%
LACLAC1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4047.5%32.1%+15.4%+15.4%
PHIPHI1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4325.6%14.8%+10.7%+10.4%
HOUHOU1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game COVERS427.1%18.1%-11.0%-10.5%
HOUHOU1st Half TT OVER + Full Game WINS4245.2%31.1%+14.2%+12.2%
KCKC1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4025.0%14.8%+10.2%+9.5%
LALA1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS4334.9%18.9%+15.9%+10.5%
KCKC1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4010.0%21.0%-11.0%-10.3%
DENDEN1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN4020.0%34.1%-14.1%-11.1%
LALA1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game COVERS4327.9%18.1%+9.8%+9.3%
DENDEN1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game COVERS4027.5%18.1%+9.4%+9.5%
WASWAS1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4143.9%32.1%+11.8%+11.3%
KCKC1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4042.5%32.1%+10.4%+11.1%
PITPIT1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game COVERS4027.5%18.1%+9.4%+9.1%
HOUHOU1st Half TT OVER + Full Game COVERS4242.9%31.8%+11.1%+10.7%
BUFBUF1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN4316.3%34.1%-17.8%-9.8%
WASWAS1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER417.3%14.8%-7.5%-8.0%
HOUHOU1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS4211.9%18.9%-7.0%-8.7%
CHICHI1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO COVER407.5%15.4%-7.9%-8.1%
SEASEA1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS4131.7%18.9%+12.8%+9.0%
KCKC1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4022.5%32.1%-9.6%-10.3%
LACLAC1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN4042.5%34.1%+8.4%+10.0%
LACLAC1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4012.5%21.0%-8.5%-8.6%
PHIPHI1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN4318.6%34.1%-15.5%-8.7%
LACLAC1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO WIN407.5%15.9%-8.4%-6.9%
LALA1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN4320.9%34.1%-13.1%-8.6%
PHIPHI1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO COVER4325.6%34.7%-9.1%-8.7%
LALA1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO WIN4316.3%15.9%+0.4%+5.5%
NENE1st Half TT OVER + Full Game WINS4238.1%31.1%+7.0%+8.1%
CHICHI1st Half TT OVER + Full Game COVERS4040.0%31.8%+8.2%+8.4%
HOUHOU1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN4223.8%34.1%-10.3%-7.9%
CHICHI1st Half TT OVER + Full Game WINS4136.6%31.1%+5.5%+7.6%
PHIPHI1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4314.0%21.0%-7.0%-6.7%
DENDEN1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4040.0%32.1%+7.9%+8.0%
NENE1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4238.1%32.1%+6.0%+7.3%
LALA1st Half TT OVER + Full Game WINS4327.9%31.1%-3.1%-7.3%
SEASEA1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO WIN417.3%15.9%-8.6%-5.1%
PITPIT1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO COVER4027.5%34.7%-7.2%-7.6%
SFSF1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4040.0%32.1%+7.9%+7.5%
NENE1st Half TT OVER + Full Game COVERS4037.5%31.8%+5.7%+7.2%
HOUHOU1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO COVER4221.4%15.4%+6.1%+5.6%
LALA1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO COVER4327.9%34.7%-6.8%-7.3%
CHICHI1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO WIN4112.2%15.9%-3.7%-5.9%
BUFBUF1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4339.5%32.1%+7.4%+7.1%
DENDEN1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO WIN407.5%15.9%-8.4%-5.0%
PITPIT1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS4025.0%18.9%+6.1%+6.0%
DENDEN1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO COVER4010.0%15.4%-5.4%-5.5%
BUFBUF1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS4332.6%18.9%+13.6%+6.3%
WASWAS1st Half TT OVER + Full Game WINS4035.0%31.1%+3.9%+6.5%
PHIPHI1st Half TT OVER + Full Game WINS4344.2%31.1%+13.1%+6.7%
SFSF1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4010.0%14.8%-4.8%-5.2%
NENE1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO WIN429.5%15.9%-6.4%-4.8%
BUFBUF1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4325.6%32.1%-6.5%-6.2%
LACLAC1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4010.0%14.8%-4.8%-4.7%
HOUHOU1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO WIN4219.0%15.9%+3.1%+4.4%
HOUHOU1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO COVER4228.6%34.7%-6.1%-5.8%
NENE1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER429.5%14.8%-5.3%-4.0%
KCKC1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS4030.0%18.9%+11.1%+4.9%
SEASEA1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN4124.4%34.1%-9.7%-5.0%
PHIPHI1st Half TT OVER + Full Game COVERS4337.2%31.8%+5.4%+5.0%
BUFBUF1st Half TT OVER + Full Game COVERS4337.2%31.8%+5.4%+5.0%
SEASEA1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4136.6%32.1%+4.5%+5.0%
NENE1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4228.6%32.1%-3.5%-4.9%
WASWAS1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4126.8%32.1%-5.2%-4.8%
BUFBUF1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4311.6%14.8%-3.2%-3.6%
DENDEN1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4027.5%32.1%-4.6%-4.7%
PITPIT1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN4030.0%34.1%-4.1%-4.6%
DENDEN1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO COVER4030.0%34.7%-4.7%-4.7%
BUFBUF1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO WIN4311.6%15.9%-4.3%+2.6%
CHICHI1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4117.1%21.0%-3.9%-3.9%
KCKC1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN4022.5%34.1%-11.6%-4.1%
WASWAS1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO COVER4030.0%34.7%-4.7%-4.2%
SEASEA1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4112.2%14.8%-2.6%-3.1%
BUFBUF1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO COVER4330.2%34.7%-4.5%-4.0%
PITPIT1st Half TT OVER + Full Game COVERS4027.5%31.8%-4.3%-3.9%
WASWAS1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS4012.5%18.9%-6.4%-3.0%
KCKC1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO WIN4012.5%15.9%-3.4%+2.4%
DENDEN1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4017.5%21.0%-3.5%-3.4%
LACLAC1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS4017.5%18.9%-1.4%-3.2%
PHIPHI1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO COVER4318.6%15.4%+3.2%+2.8%
NENE1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN4233.3%34.1%-0.7%-3.5%
NENE1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO COVER4032.5%34.7%-2.2%-3.7%
SFSF1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4017.5%21.0%-3.5%-3.1%
SFSF1st Half TT OVER + Full Game WINS4037.5%31.1%+6.4%+3.5%
CHICHI1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS4114.6%18.9%-4.3%-2.7%
SFSF1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN4027.5%34.1%-6.6%-3.2%
PITPIT1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO COVER4017.5%15.4%+2.1%+2.4%
KCKC1st Half TT OVER + Full Game WINS4035.0%31.1%+3.9%-3.2%
BUFBUF1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4323.3%21.0%+2.3%+2.6%
CHICHI1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4117.1%14.8%+2.2%+2.2%
WASWAS1st Half TT OVER + Full Game COVERS4035.0%31.8%+3.2%+2.7%
CHICHI1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game COVERS4020.0%18.1%+1.9%+2.1%
PHIPHI1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4330.2%32.1%-1.9%-2.4%
CHICHI1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO COVER4032.5%34.7%-2.2%-2.4%
NENE1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game COVERS4017.5%18.1%-0.6%-1.9%
WASWAS1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO WIN4017.5%15.9%+1.6%-1.8%
BUFBUF1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO COVER4314.0%15.4%-1.4%-1.6%
NENE1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO COVER4012.5%15.4%-2.9%-1.6%
CHICHI1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4134.1%32.1%+2.1%+2.1%
LACLAC1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4030.0%32.1%-2.1%-2.1%
LALA1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4323.3%21.0%+2.3%+1.7%
SFSF1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO COVER4017.5%15.4%+2.1%+1.6%
PHIPHI1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO WIN4311.6%15.9%-4.3%+1.2%
SFSF1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO COVER4032.5%34.7%-2.2%-1.9%
WASWAS1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO COVER4017.5%15.4%+2.1%+1.5%
HOUHOU1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4134.1%32.1%+2.0%+1.8%
SFSF1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO WIN4012.5%15.9%-3.4%-1.3%
NENE1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4223.8%21.0%+2.8%+1.5%
WASWAS1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4122.0%21.0%+1.0%+1.5%
WASWAS1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN4035.0%34.1%+0.9%-1.7%
LALA1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4330.2%32.1%-1.9%-1.5%
PITPIT1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO WIN4015.0%15.9%-0.9%-1.0%
PHIPHI1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4330.2%32.1%-1.8%-1.3%
LALA1st Half TT OVER + Full Game NO COVER4314.0%15.4%-1.4%-0.9%
PHIPHI1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game COVERS4318.6%18.1%+0.5%+0.9%
SFSF1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS4022.5%18.9%+3.6%+1.0%
LALA1st Half TT OVER + Full Game COVERS4330.2%31.8%-1.6%-1.1%
SEASEA1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4119.5%21.0%-1.5%-0.9%
SEASEA1st Half TT OVER + Full Game WINS4136.6%31.1%+5.5%+1.1%
CHICHI1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game NO WIN4136.6%34.1%+2.5%+1.0%
BUFBUF1st Half TT OVER + Full Game WINS4339.5%31.1%+8.5%+0.9%
BUFBUF1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game COVERS4318.6%18.1%+0.5%+0.7%
SEASEA1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4131.7%32.1%-0.4%-0.9%
PHIPHI1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS4325.6%18.9%+6.6%+0.7%
SFSF1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4032.5%32.1%+0.4%+0.8%
DENDEN1st Half TT OVER + Full Game COVERS4032.5%31.8%+0.7%+0.7%
LALA1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4314.0%14.8%-0.9%-0.3%
CHICHI1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL OVER4131.7%32.1%-0.4%-0.4%
DENDEN1st Half TT OVER + Full Game WINS4035.0%31.1%+3.9%+0.4%
SFSF1st Half TT OVER + Full Game COVERS4032.5%31.8%+0.7%+0.4%
PITPIT1st Half TT OVER + Full Game WINS4030.0%31.1%-1.1%-0.3%
NENE1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game WINS4219.0%18.9%+0.1%+0.1%
LACLAC1st Half TT OVER + Full Game WINS4032.5%31.1%+1.4%+0.1%
HOUHOU1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4131.7%32.1%-0.4%-0.1%
DENDEN1st Half TT OVER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4015.0%14.8%+0.2%+0.1%
SFSF1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game COVERS4017.5%18.1%-0.6%-0.1%
LALA1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game TOTAL UNDER4332.6%32.1%+0.5%+0.1%
WASWAS1st Half TT UNDER + Full Game COVERS4017.5%18.1%-0.6%+0.0%