SGPLAB

NFL · Prop Lab · Pass Yards

NFL Prop Lab

Backtest NFL pass yards props against any combination of filters — player, opponent, spread/total, home/away, weather, season — and get the pooled record, units, ROI, and a cumulative P&L. Graded at the book’s real closing line. Every filter you add shrinks the sample and multiplies the ways to find a pattern that won’t repeat, so read the record alongside the ROI. Click a breakdown row for the game-by-game.

League
Stat
Side
Book
Alt Line
Line
Odds
Loading filters…
Record840-834
Over %50.2%
Units-93.6u
ROI-5.6%
Pass Yards Over · DraftKings
Break down by
min games
95 players · 95 groups
PlayerRECOver %UnitsROI
detJARED GOFFJ. GOFF36-1965%12.8u23.2%
neDRAKE MAYED. MAYE22-1069%9.3u29.2%
laMATTHEW STAFFORDM. STAFFORD32-2259%5.9u10.9%
nyjTYROD TAYLORT. TAYLOR7-278%4.3u47.4%
noTYLER SHOUGHT. SHOUGH7-278%4.3u47.2%
denBO NIXB. NIX21-1558%3.5u9.6%
dalDAK PRESCOTTD. PRESCOTT24-1857%3.3u8.0%
wasMARCUS MARIOTAM. MARIOTA6-275%3.3u41.8%
cinJOE FLACCOJ. FLACCO13-862%3.2u15.4%
noSPENCER RATTLERS. RATTLER9-564%3.0u21.8%
tenMASON RUDOLPHM. RUDOLPH7-370%3.0u30.1%
ariJACOBY BRISSETTJ. BRISSETT10-663%2.9u18.2%
minNICK MULLENSN. MULLENS3-0100%2.7u91.3%
lacEASTON STICKE. STICK3-0100%2.6u87.0%
atlDESMOND RIDDERD. RIDDER8-562%2.1u16.5%
sfBROCK PURDYB. PURDY25-2056%1.9u4.3%
lvAIDAN O'CONNELLA. O'CONNELL10-759%1.7u10.2%
clePJ WALKERP. WALKER2-0100%1.7u87.0%
houC.J. STROUDC. STROUD28-2355%1.6u3.1%
cleJAMEIS WINSTONJ. WINSTON5-363%1.4u17.0%
cinJAKE BROWNINGJ. BROWNING6-460%1.2u12.5%
nygJAXSON DARTJ. DART7-558%1.2u10.0%
wasJAYDEN DANIELSJ. DANIELS15-1256%1.0u3.7%
phiTANNER MCKEET. MCKEE1-0100%0.9u90.1%
indRILEY LEONARDR. LEONARD1-0100%0.9u89.3%
nyjTREVOR SIEMIANT. SIEMIAN2-167%0.8u27.4%
cleJEFF DRISKELJ. DRISKEL1-0100%0.8u80.0%
houDAVIS MILLSD. MILLS2-167%0.8u26.2%
denJARRETT STIDHAMJ. STIDHAM2-167%0.7u24.6%
minCARSON WENTZC. WENTZ3-260%0.7u13.7%
nygDREW LOCKD. LOCK4-357%0.4u6.3%
ariJOSHUA DOBBSJ. DOBBS7-654%0.4u2.9%
wasSAM HOWELLS. HOWELL9-853%0.2u1.3%
gbMALIK WILLISM. WILLIS1-150%0.1u5.8%
lacTREY LANCET. LANCE1-150%0.1u6.5%
nyjTIM BOYLET. BOYLE1-150%0.1u6.5%
houCASE KEENUMC. KEENUM1-150%0.1u6.5%
balLAMAR JACKSONL. JACKSON26-2353%0.2u0.4%
nyjBRADY COOKB. COOK2-250%0.2u5.4%
atlTAYLOR HEINICKET. HEINICKE2-250%0.3u6.5%
chiTYSON BAGENTT. BAGENT2-250%0.3u6.5%
miaTYLER HUNTLEYT. HUNTLEY4-450%0.4u5.0%
gbJORDAN LOVEJ. LOVE27-2453%0.6u1.1%
atlMICHAEL PENIX JR.M. PENIX JR.6-650%0.7u5.7%
tenCAM WARDC. WARD8-850%0.9u5.4%
jaxTREVOR LAWRENCET. LAWRENCE23-2152%0.9u2.0%
ariCLAYTON TUNEC. TUNE0-10%1.0u100.0%
jaxC.J. BEATHARDC. BEATHARD0-10%1.0u100.0%
lvBRIAN HOYERB. HOYER0-10%1.0u100.0%
pitMITCHELL TRUBISKYM. TRUBISKY0-10%1.0u100.0%
noJAKE HAENERJ. HAENER0-10%1.0u100.0%
miaSKYLAR THOMPSONS. THOMPSON0-10%1.0u100.0%
sfBRANDON ALLENB. ALLEN0-10%1.0u100.0%
wasJOSH JOHNSONJ. JOHNSON0-10%1.0u100.0%
laBRETT RYPIENB. RYPIEN0-10%1.0u100.0%
indPHILIP RIVERSP. RIVERS1-233%1.1u36.9%
miaQUINN EWERSQ. EWERS1-233%1.1u36.9%
neBAILEY ZAPPEB. ZAPPE2-340%1.3u25.2%
cleSHEDEUR SANDERSS. SANDERS3-443%1.3u18.8%
tbBAKER MAYFIELDB. MAYFIELD28-2652%1.3u2.4%
tenRYAN TANNEHILLR. TANNEHILL3-443%1.4u19.9%
noDEREK CARRD. CARR13-1350%1.5u5.7%
nyjZACH WILSONZ. WILSON5-645%1.7u15.3%
kcCHRIS OLADOKUNC. OLADOKUN0-20%2.0u100.0%
minMAX BROSMERM. BROSMER0-20%2.0u100.0%
minJAREN HALLJ. HALL0-20%2.0u100.0%
minSAM DARNOLDS. DARNOLD19-1950%2.2u5.7%
cleDILLON GABRIELD. GABRIEL2-433%2.2u36.6%
nygTOMMY DEVITOT. DEVITO3-538%2.3u28.9%
chiJUSTIN FIELDSJ. FIELDS13-1448%2.3u8.6%
kcGARDNER MINSHEWG. MINSHEW11-1248%2.4u10.4%
dalCOOPER RUSHC. RUSH4-640%2.4u24.0%
pitKENNY PICKETTK. PICKETT6-843%2.8u19.9%
neMAC JONESM. JONES11-1346%3.1u12.8%
cleDORIAN THOMPSON-ROBINSOND. THOMPSON-ROBINSON1-420%3.1u61.8%
lvJIMMY GAROPPOLOJ. GAROPPOLO2-529%3.1u44.7%
carANDY DALTONA. DALTON2-529%3.3u46.6%
cinJOE BURROWJ. BURROW17-1849%3.3u9.6%
ariKYLER MURRAYK. MURRAY14-1647%3.9u13.0%
chiCALEB WILLIAMSC. WILLIAMS17-1947%4.0u11.0%
bufJOSH ALLENJ. ALLEN27-2849%4.2u7.7%
indDANIEL JONESD. JONES13-1645%4.4u15.2%
pitRUSSELL WILSONR. WILSON13-1645%4.6u15.7%
atlKIRK COUSINSK. COUSINS13-1645%4.7u16.3%
tenWILL LEVISW. LEVIS8-1240%4.9u24.3%
nyjAARON RODGERSA. RODGERS16-1946%5.0u14.2%
cleDESHAUN WATSOND. WATSON4-931%5.6u42.8%
minJ.J. MCCARTHYJ. MCCARTHY2-820%6.2u62.1%
lacJUSTIN HERBERTJ. HERBERT22-2646%6.7u13.9%
phiJALEN HURTSJ. HURTS24-2945%7.6u14.3%
kcPATRICK MAHOMESP. MAHOMES24-2945%7.9u15.0%
miaTUA TAGOVAILOAT. TAGOVAILOA18-2443%8.1u19.4%
lvGENO SMITHG. SMITH20-2743%9.1u19.4%
indANTHONY RICHARDSONA. RICHARDSON3-1220%9.2u61.1%
carBRYCE YOUNGB. YOUNG13-3130%19.4u44.2%
Cumulative P&L (flat 1u · DraftKings)
-98-473units

Each filter you add shrinks the sample and multiplies the ways to find a pattern that won’t repeat. Read the record alongside the ROI — a thin sample moves a long way on one game. Lines/prices are closing numbers; pushes are excluded from the record.