NFL · Prop Lab · Pass Yards

NFL Prop Lab

Backtest NFL pass yards props against any combination of filters — player, opponent, spread/total, home/away, weather, season — and get the pooled record, units, ROI, and a cumulative P&L. Graded at the book’s real closing line. Every filter you add shrinks the sample and multiplies the ways to find a pattern that won’t repeat, so read the record alongside the ROI. Click a breakdown row for the game-by-game.

League

Stat

Side

Book

Alt Line

Line–

Odds–

Loading filters…

Record652-653

Over %50.0%

Units-78.1u

ROI-6.0%

Pass Yards Over · DraftKings

Break down by

min games

79 players · 79 groups

Player ⇅	REC ⇅	Over % ⇅	Units ⇅	ROI ⇅
JARED GOFFJ. GOFF	26-14	65%	▲8.9u	▲22.4%
DRAKE MAYED. MAYE	25-14	64%	▲8.0u	▲20.6%
MATTHEW STAFFORDM. STAFFORD	27-17	61%	▲6.6u	▲15.1%
TYLER SHOUGHT. SHOUGH	10-5	67%	▲3.9u	▲26.2%
MARCUS MARIOTAM. MARIOTA	7-3	70%	▲3.2u	▲32.4%
SPENCER RATTLERS. RATTLER	9-5	64%	▲3.0u	▲21.8%
JACOBY BRISSETTJ. BRISSETT	13-9	59%	▲2.6u	▲11.7%
BROCK PURDYB. PURDY	18-14	56%	▲2.0u	▲6.3%
TANNER MCKEET. MCKEE	2-0	100%	▲1.8u	▲89.3%
TYROD TAYLORT. TAYLOR	3-1	75%	▲1.7u	▲41.4%
DREW LOCKD. LOCK	4-2	67%	▲1.5u	▲24.4%
C.J. STROUDC. STROUD	22-18	55%	▲1.5u	▲3.7%
MASON RUDOLPHM. RUDOLPH	4-2	67%	▲1.4u	▲24.0%
DEREK CARRD. CARR	6-4	60%	▲1.2u	▲11.8%
JAMEIS WINSTONJ. WINSTON	7-5	58%	▲1.2u	▲9.6%
JAXSON DARTJ. DART	8-6	57%	▲1.1u	▲7.8%
MAC JONESM. JONES	8-6	57%	▲1.1u	▲7.6%
JOSHUA DOBBSJ. DOBBS	1-0	100%	▲0.9u	▲90.9%
RILEY LEONARDR. LEONARD	1-0	100%	▲0.9u	▲89.3%
CASE KEENUMC. KEENUM	1-0	100%	▲0.9u	▲89.3%
JIMMY GAROPPOLOJ. GAROPPOLO	1-0	100%	▲0.9u	▲87.0%
JAYDEN DANIELSJ. DANIELS	17-14	55%	▲0.8u	▲2.5%
DAVIS MILLSD. MILLS	2-1	67%	▲0.8u	▲26.2%
MALIK WILLISM. WILLIS	4-3	57%	▲0.6u	▲7.9%
AIDAN O'CONNELLA. O'CONNELL	4-3	57%	▲0.5u	▲7.5%
TYLER HUNTLEYT. HUNTLEY	5-4	56%	▲0.5u	▲5.6%
DAK PRESCOTTD. PRESCOTT	16-14	53%	▲0.2u	▲0.7%
DORIAN THOMPSON-ROBINSOND. THOMPSON-ROBINSON	1-1	50%	▼0.1u	▼4.5%
TYSON BAGENTT. BAGENT	1-1	50%	▼0.1u	▼5.4%
TOMMY DEVITOT. DEVITO	1-1	50%	▼0.1u	▼6.5%
TREY LANCET. LANCE	1-1	50%	▼0.1u	▼6.5%
BRADY COOKB. COOK	2-2	50%	▼0.2u	▼5.4%
CARSON WENTZC. WENTZ	3-3	50%	▼0.3u	▼5.2%
LAMAR JACKSONL. JACKSON	19-17	53%	▼0.5u	▼1.3%
PATRICK MAHOMESP. MAHOMES	20-18	53%	▼0.5u	▼1.3%
JOSH ALLENJ. ALLEN	22-20	52%	▼0.5u	▼1.2%
AARON RODGERSA. RODGERS	21-19	53%	▼0.5u	▼1.3%
GARDNER MINSHEWG. MINSHEW	5-5	50%	▼0.6u	▼6.1%
DANIEL JONESD. JONES	15-14	52%	▼0.6u	▼2.1%
BO NIXB. NIX	22-20	52%	▼0.7u	▼1.5%
RUSSELL WILSONR. WILSON	7-7	50%	▼0.8u	▼5.5%
MICHAEL PENIX JR.M. PENIX JR.	8-8	50%	▼0.9u	▼5.7%
JAKE HAENERJ. HAENER	0-1	0%	▼1.0u	▼100.0%
SKYLAR THOMPSONS. THOMPSON	0-1	0%	▼1.0u	▼100.0%
BRANDON ALLENB. ALLEN	0-1	0%	▼1.0u	▼100.0%
JOSH JOHNSONJ. JOHNSON	0-1	0%	▼1.0u	▼100.0%
DESMOND RIDDERD. RIDDER	0-1	0%	▼1.0u	▼100.0%
JARRETT STIDHAMJ. STIDHAM	0-1	0%	▼1.0u	▼100.0%
JAKE BROWNINGJ. BROWNING	1-2	33%	▼1.1u	▼36.6%
PHILIP RIVERSP. RIVERS	1-2	33%	▼1.1u	▼36.9%
QUINN EWERSQ. EWERS	1-2	33%	▼1.1u	▼36.9%
JALON DANIELSJ. DANIELS	1-2	33%	▼1.1u	▼37.2%
SHEDEUR SANDERSS. SANDERS	3-4	43%	▼1.3u	▼18.8%
JOE FLACCOJ. FLACCO	7-8	47%	▼1.8u	▼12.1%
TREVOR LAWRENCET. LAWRENCE	17-17	50%	▼2.0u	▼5.8%
CHRIS OLADOKUNC. OLADOKUN	0-2	0%	▼2.0u	▼100.0%
MAX BROSMERM. BROSMER	0-2	0%	▼2.0u	▼100.0%
KENNY PICKETTK. PICKETT	0-2	0%	▼2.0u	▼100.0%
DILLON GABRIELD. GABRIEL	2-4	33%	▼2.2u	▼36.6%
CALEB WILLIAMSC. WILLIAMS	20-20	50%	▼2.3u	▼5.7%
KIRK COUSINSK. COUSINS	13-14	48%	▼2.7u	▼9.9%
JUSTIN FIELDSJ. FIELDS	6-8	43%	▼2.7u	▼19.3%
CAM WARDC. WARD	10-12	45%	▼3.1u	▼14.0%
SAM DARNOLDS. DARNOLD	21-22	49%	▼3.4u	▼7.8%
WILL LEVISW. LEVIS	4-7	36%	▼3.5u	▼32.0%
JOE BURROWJ. BURROW	14-16	47%	▼3.8u	▼12.6%
ANDY DALTONA. DALTON	1-5	17%	▼4.1u	▼68.8%
COOPER RUSHC. RUSH	4-8	33%	▼4.4u	▼36.7%
TUA TAGOVAILOAT. TAGOVAILOA	10-14	42%	▼5.2u	▼21.8%
KYLER MURRAYK. MURRAY	11-15	42%	▼5.4u	▼20.9%
BRYCE YOUNGB. YOUNG	15-19	44%	▼5.8u	▼17.1%
JORDAN LOVEJ. LOVE	17-21	45%	▼6.1u	▼16.2%
J.J. MCCARTHYJ. MCCARTHY	2-8	20%	▼6.2u	▼62.1%
ANTHONY RICHARDSONA. RICHARDSON	2-9	18%	▼7.3u	▼66.0%
JUSTIN HERBERTJ. HERBERT	18-23	44%	▼7.3u	▼17.9%
DESHAUN WATSOND. WATSON	3-10	23%	▼7.3u	▼56.4%
GENO SMITHG. SMITH	16-22	42%	▼7.9u	▼20.7%
BAKER MAYFIELDB. MAYFIELD	16-22	42%	▼8.0u	▼21.0%
JALEN HURTSJ. HURTS	17-24	41%	▼9.0u	▼21.9%

Cumulative P&L (flat 1u · DraftKings)

Each filter you add shrinks the sample and multiplies the ways to find a pattern that won’t repeat. Read the record alongside the ROI — a thin sample moves a long way on one game. Lines/prices are closing numbers; pushes are excluded from the record.