NBA · Price Outliers

NBA Price Outliers

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Player props where one sportsbook is well off the rest of the market on the same player, line and side, across every NBA game on the board. Ranked by how far, in points of probability, so a 200-1 that’s 100-1 elsewhere doesn’t outrank a +750 that’s +500 everywhere else. Pulled lines are dropped, quotes that stopped updating are dropped, and books whose outliers usually turn out to be stale are hidden until you ask for them, all based on how each book’s past outliers held up to the closing line.

NBA · 19 outliers · 5+ pts off the market · −150 to +1000

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19 prices

Player	Bet	Price	Market	Gap	EV	Book record	Game
ANTHONY DAVISA. DAVIS	o2.5 Blocks alt	+625	+287 ×6	12.0 +2	+60.9%	—	WSH @ IND
KYSHAWN GEORGEK. GEORGE	o4.5 Assists	+130	-107 ×13	8.2 +1	+10.6%	—	WSH @ IND
ALEX SARRA. SARR	o1.5 Blocks	+195	+139 ×8	7.9	+11.5%	−1.7%	WSH @ IND
OBI TOPPINO. TOPPIN	o2.5 Assists alt	+220	+162 ×6	6.9	+6.2%*	—	WSH @ IND
ALEX SARRA. SARR	o1.5 Blocks	+180	+139 ×8	6.1	+5.8%	—	WSH @ IND
T.J. MCCONNELLT. MCCONNELL	o3.5 Assists	-108	-138 ×12	6.1	+3.0%	−1.4%	WSH @ IND
BILAL COULIBALYB. COULIBALY	o0.5 Threes alt	-104	-132 ×11	5.9	+1.5%	−1.4%	WSH @ IND
KELLY OUBRE JR.K. OUBRE JR.	o14.5 Pts + Reb alt	+195	+152 ×4	5.7	+2.6%*	—	WSH @ IND
OBI TOPPINO. TOPPIN	o1.5 Assists alt	-115	-145 ×11	5.7	+0.8%	−1.4%	WSH @ IND
OBI TOPPINO. TOPPIN	o1.5 Assists alt	-115	-145 ×11	5.7	+0.8%	+0.5%	WSH @ IND
KYSHAWN GEORGEK. GEORGE	o1.5 Blocks	+290	+220 ×5	5.6	+2.2%*	—	WSH @ IND
BILAL COULIBALYB. COULIBALY	o14.5 Pts + Reb alt	+255	+197 ×5	5.5	+1.6%*	—	WSH @ IND
IVICA ZUBACI. ZUBAC	o2.5 Assists	+172	+137 ×10	5.4	+7.0%	—	WSH @ IND
TRAE YOUNGT. YOUNG	o18.5 Points	+121	-102 ×8	5.4	+3.2%	+0.5%	WSH @ IND
ANTHONY DAVISA. DAVIS	o2.5 Assists	+155	+125 ×11	5.2	+6.2%	—	WSH @ IND
TRAE YOUNGT. YOUNG	o18.5 Points	+120	-102 ×8	5.2	+2.8%	−1.4%	WSH @ IND
BILAL COULIBALYB. COULIBALY	o7.5 Points	+104	-118 ×11	5.1	+2.8%	−1.4%	WSH @ IND
TRAE YOUNGT. YOUNG	o9.5 Assists alt	+135	+110 ×13	5.1	−0.0%	−1.4%	WSH @ IND
OBI TOPPINO. TOPPIN	o19.5 Pts + Ast alt	+425	+315 ×4	5.0	+1.5%*	—	WSH @ IND

Gap is how much better the price is than the other books’ median, in points of probability (+N = more lines on the same ladder at that book are also off). Across 82,000 past outliers, a gap of 3–5 points was worth about nothing against the closing line — it’s mostly the vig — while 5+ points held positive value, which is why the default starts there. EV uses the market’s devigged price (* = estimated, no two-way market at that line). Pulled lines and quotes that stopped updating are removed; PrizePicks is excluded (its prices are placeholders). 1 price from flagged books hidden — turn on Flagged books to see them.