NBA · Price Outliers

NBA Price Outliers

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Player props where one sportsbook is well off the rest of the market on the same player, line and side, across every NBA game on the board. Ranked by how far, in points of probability, so a 200-1 that’s 100-1 elsewhere doesn’t outrank a +750 that’s +500 everywhere else. Pulled lines are dropped, quotes that stopped updating are dropped, and books whose outliers usually turn out to be stale are hidden until you ask for them, all based on how each book’s past outliers held up to the closing line.

NBA · 39 outliers · 5+ pts off the market · −150 to +1000

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39 prices

Player	Bet	Price	Market	Gap	EV	Book record	Game
KYLE KUZMAK. KUZMA	o14.5 Pts + Reb alt	-112	-201 ×5	13.9 +3	+22.0%*	—	LAL @ MIL
KYLE KUZMAK. KUZMA	o9.5 Points alt	-135	-239 ×12	13.1 +2	+6.6%	—	LAL @ MIL
KYLE KUZMAK. KUZMA	o14.5 Pts + Ast	+125	-134 ×7	12.8 +2	+18.3%	—	LAL @ MIL
JAKE LARAVIAJ. LARAVIA	o1.5 Steals	+128	-130 ×7	12.7 +2	+4.6%	−1.7%	LAL @ MIL
JAKE LARAVIAJ. LARAVIA	o1.5 Steals	+125	-130 ×7	12.1 +2	+3.2%	—	LAL @ MIL
KYLE KUZMAK. KUZMA	o19.5 Pts + Reb + Ast	+135	-119 ×10	11.9 +2	+17.5%	—	LAL @ MIL
BRAYDEN BURRIESB. BURRIES	o14.5 Pts + Ast alt	-120	-195 ×5	11.6 +3	+16.8%*	—	LAL @ MIL
BRAYDEN BURRIESB. BURRIES	o19.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	-122	-191 ×6	10.7	+15.0%*	−1.4%	LAL @ MIL
BRAYDEN BURRIESB. BURRIES	o19.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	-125	-191 ×6	10.1 +3	+13.7%*	—	LAL @ MIL
BRAYDEN BURRIESB. BURRIES	o19.5 Pts + Reb alt	+150	-100 ×7	10.0 +2	+14.4%*	—	LAL @ MIL
WALKER KESSLERW. KESSLER	o2.5 Blocks alt	+235	+152 ×7	9.8 +3	+16.5%	—	LAL @ MIL
BRAYDEN BURRIESB. BURRIES	o14.5 Points alt	+175	+121 ×10	8.9 +2	+8.4%	—	LAL @ MIL
LUKA DONCICL. DONCIC	o15.5 Reb + Ast	+140	-100 ×7	8.3 +1	+11.7%	—	LAL @ MIL
LUKA DONCICL. DONCIC	o49.5 Pts + Ast alt	+375	+241 ×5	8.3 +3	+15.5%*	—	LAL @ MIL
ZIAIRE WILLIAMSZ. WILLIAMS	o1.5 Steals	+150	+110 ×8	7.6	+0.2%	−1.4%	LAL @ MIL
KYLE KUZMAK. KUZMA	o11.5 Points alt	-110	-148 ×5	7.3	+7.8%*	+2.6%	LAL @ MIL
LUKA DONCICL. DONCIC	o49.5 Pts + Ast alt	+350	+241 ×5	7.1 +2	+9.5%*	+2.6%	LAL @ MIL
LUKA DONCICL. DONCIC	o54.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	+230	+167 ×6	7.1 +1	+7.1%*	—	LAL @ MIL
LUKA DONCICL. DONCIC	o54.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	+230	+167 ×6	7.1 +1	+7.1%*	+2.6%	LAL @ MIL
KEL'EL WAREK. WARE	u10.5 Points	+117	-112 ×4	6.9	+6.1%	−1.4%	LAL @ MIL
SANDRO MAMUKELASHVILIS. MAMUKELASHVILI	o9.5 Points alt	+145	+111 ×12	6.6	+8.1%	—	LAL @ MIL
SANDRO MAMUKELASHVILIS. MAMUKELASHVILI	o1.5 Steals alt	+310	+223 ×5	6.6	+7.2%	—	LAL @ MIL
JAKE LARAVIAJ. LARAVIA	o1.5 Steals	-100	-130 ×7	6.5	−8.3%	−1.4%	LAL @ MIL
BRAYDEN BURRIESB. BURRIES	o2.5 Threes alt	+350	+255 ×10	6.0 +1	+8.3%	—	LAL @ MIL
TYLER HERROT. HERRO	o4.5 Rebounds	+140	+110 ×12	6.0	+8.6%	—	LAL @ MIL
LUKA DONCICL. DONCIC	o44.5 Pts + Reb alt	+160	+126 ×7	5.8 +3	+2.9%*	+2.6%	LAL @ MIL
JAIME JAQUEZ JRJ. JAQUEZ JR	o24.5 Pts + Reb alt	+260	+200 ×5	5.6 +1	+1.8%*	+2.6%	LAL @ MIL
KYLE KUZMAK. KUZMA	o19.5 Pts + Reb alt	+200	+157 ×6	5.5	+1.9%*	+2.6%	LAL @ MIL
TYLER HERROT. HERRO	o4.5 Assists	+150	+120 ×11	5.5	+3.9%	−1.4%	LAL @ MIL
JAIME JAQUEZ JRJ. JAQUEZ JR	o29.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	+350	+262 ×6	5.4	+2.0%*	+2.6%	LAL @ MIL
AUSTIN REAVESA. REAVES	o4.5 Assists alt	-132	-165 ×9	5.4	−0.0%	—	LAL @ MIL
LUKA DONCICL. DONCIC	o9.5 Rebounds alt	+350	+262 ×12	5.4	+13.7%	+2.6%	LAL @ MIL
BRAYDEN BURRIESB. BURRIES	o1.5 Threes	+108	-114 ×12	5.3	+3.7%	−1.4%	LAL @ MIL
WALKER KESSLERW. KESSLER	o29.5 Pts + Reb alt	+275	+213 ×7	5.3	+0.9%*	+2.6%	LAL @ MIL
JAIME JAQUEZ JRJ. JAQUEZ JR	o24.5 Pts + Ast alt	+375	+280 ×6	5.3	+1.8%*	+2.6%	LAL @ MIL
TYLER HERROT. HERRO	u4.5 Assists	-135	-168 ×7	5.2	+1.7%	+2.6%	LAL @ MIL
AUSTIN REAVESA. REAVES	o4.5 Assists alt	-133	-165 ×9	5.2	−0.4%	−1.4%	LAL @ MIL
BRAYDEN BURRIESB. BURRIES	o4.5 Assists alt	+350	+265 ×7	5.2	+1.1%*	—	LAL @ MIL
BRAYDEN BURRIESB. BURRIES	u3.5 Assists	-150	-186 ×7	5.0	+0.7%	+2.6%	LAL @ MIL

Gap is how much better the price is than the other books’ median, in points of probability (+N = more lines on the same ladder at that book are also off). Across 82,000 past outliers, a gap of 3–5 points was worth about nothing against the closing line — it’s mostly the vig — while 5+ points held positive value, which is why the default starts there. EV uses the market’s devigged price (* = estimated, no two-way market at that line). Pulled lines and quotes that stopped updating are removed; PrizePicks is excluded (its prices are placeholders). 12 prices from flagged books hidden — turn on Flagged books to see them.