NBA · Price Outliers

NBA Price Outliers

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Player props where one sportsbook is well off the rest of the market on the same player, line and side, across every NBA game on the board. Ranked by how far, in points of probability, so a 200-1 that’s 100-1 elsewhere doesn’t outrank a +750 that’s +500 everywhere else. Pulled lines are dropped, quotes that stopped updating are dropped, and books whose outliers usually turn out to be stale are hidden until you ask for them, all based on how each book’s past outliers held up to the closing line.

NBA · 56 outliers · 5+ pts off the market · −150 to +1000

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56 prices

Player	Bet	Price	Market	Gap	EV	Book record	Game
ANDRE DRUMMONDA. DRUMMOND	o14.5 Pts + Reb alt	+210	-128 ×4	24.0 +4	+62.8%*	—	CLE @ NY
ANDRE DRUMMONDA. DRUMMOND	o9.5 Rebounds alt	+375	+138 ×9	21.0 +5	+79.2%	—	CLE @ NY
ANDRE DRUMMONDA. DRUMMOND	o4.5 Points alt	-112	-240 ×4	17.7 +2	+30.2%*	—	CLE @ NY
JOSH HARTJ. HART	o1.5 Steals	+154	-111 ×7	13.2 +3	+5.5%	+1.9%	CLE @ NY
OG ANUNOBYO. ANUNOBY	o24.5 Pts + Ast alt	+300	+179 ×6	10.8 +2	+23.3%*	—	CLE @ NY
OG ANUNOBYO. ANUNOBY	o29.5 Pts + Reb alt	+400	+225 ×7	10.8 +3	+28.7%*	—	CLE @ NY
OG ANUNOBYO. ANUNOBY	o29.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	+240	+153 ×6	10.1 +2	+17.7%*	—	CLE @ NY
JOSH HARTJ. HART	o9.5 Rebounds alt	+310	+200 ×9	8.9 +1	+16.0%*	—	CLE @ NY
JALEN BRUNSONJ. BRUNSON	o39.5 Pts + Reb alt	+575	+324 ×7	8.8 +3	+27.3%*	—	CLE @ NY
MIKAL BRIDGESM. BRIDGES	o1.5 Steals	+240	+162 ×6	8.7 +1	+12.0%	—	CLE @ NY
JALEN BRUNSONJ. BRUNSON	o39.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	+160	+114 ×6	8.2 +2	+9.8%*	—	CLE @ NY
JALEN BRUNSONJ. BRUNSON	o34.5 Pts + Ast	+122	-113 ×10	8.1 +3	+10.3%	—	CLE @ NY
JALEN BRUNSONJ. BRUNSON	o24.5 Points alt	-141	-198 ×11	7.9 +2	+3.5%	—	CLE @ NY
MILES MCBRIDEM. MCBRIDE	o9.5 Points alt	+310	+212 ×10	7.6	+14.0%	—	CLE @ NY
JOSH HARTJ. HART	o11.5 Reb + Ast	+102	-132 ×9	7.4 +2	+7.3%	—	CLE @ NY
JOSH HARTJ. HART	o1.5 Steals	+120	-111 ×7	7.2	−8.7%	−1.4%	CLE @ NY
OG ANUNOBYO. ANUNOBY	o24.5 Points alt	+500	+320 ×11	7.1 +2	+23.3%	—	CLE @ NY
JOSH HARTJ. HART	o2.5 Steals alt	+340	+235 ×5	7.1 +2	+9.3%*	+0.0%	CLE @ NY
EVAN MOBLEYE. MOBLEY	o19.5 Pts + Ast	+115	-115 ×9	7.0	+7.5%	—	CLE @ NY
PEYTON WATSONP. WATSON	o19.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	+140	+107 ×6	6.6 +1	+5.4%*	—	CLE @ NY
JARRETT ALLENJ. ALLEN	o1.5 Blocks	+220	+164 ×6	6.6	+5.6%	−1.7%	CLE @ NY
JAYLON TYSONJ. TYSON	o7.5 Points alt	-105	-137 ×8	6.6 +1	+1.2%	+2.6%	CLE @ NY
DONOVAN MITCHELLD. MITCHELL	o34.5 Pts + Ast alt	+320	+230 ×7	6.5 +1	+6.2%*	—	CLE @ NY
JOSH HARTJ. HART	o29.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	+525	+345 ×7	6.5	+11.4%*	—	CLE @ NY
JOSH HARTJ. HART	o24.5 Pts + Reb alt	+475	+320 ×7	6.4	+9.6%*	—	CLE @ NY
DONOVAN MITCHELLD. MITCHELL	o34.5 Pts + Reb alt	+350	+250 ×7	6.3 +3	+6.2%*	—	CLE @ NY
JAYLON TYSONJ. TYSON	o14.5 Pts + Reb alt	+230	+173 ×6	6.3	+4.3%*	+2.6%	CLE @ NY
JAMES HARDENJ. HARDEN	o16.5 Points	+120	-106 ×10	6.1	+5.4%	−1.4%	CLE @ NY
DONOVAN MITCHELLD. MITCHELL	o33.5 Pts + Reb + Ast	+111	-115 ×8	6.1	+5.5%	−1.4%	CLE @ NY
ANDRE DRUMMONDA. DRUMMOND	o11.5 Rebounds alt	+376	+270 ×7	6.0	+5.2%*	−1.4%	CLE @ NY
PEYTON WATSONP. WATSON	o14.5 Pts + Reb alt	-147	-190 ×5	6.0 +2	+5.9%*	—	CLE @ NY
JARRETT ALLENJ. ALLEN	o2.5 Assists alt	+400	+285 ×7	6.0	+5.5%*	—	CLE @ NY
JOSH HARTJ. HART	o4.5 Assists	+140	+110 ×9	6.0	+6.5%	—	CLE @ NY
JOSH HARTJ. HART	o14.5 Reb + Ast alt	+280	+210 ×5	5.9	+3.4%*	+2.6%	CLE @ NY
PEYTON WATSONP. WATSON	o14.5 Pts + Ast	+122	-104 ×8	5.9	+6.5%	—	CLE @ NY
KARL-ANTHONY TOWNSK. TOWNS	o39.5 Pts + Reb alt	+340	+250 ×7	5.8	+3.8%*	+2.6%	CLE @ NY
JOSH HARTJ. HART	o15.5 Points alt	+450	+318 ×4	5.7 +1	+5.4%*	−1.7%	CLE @ NY
JOSH HARTJ. HART	o5.5 Assists alt	+280	+212 ×6	5.7	+2.6%*	+1.9%	CLE @ NY
DONOVAN MITCHELLD. MITCHELL	o34.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	+130	+103 ×6	5.7 +1	+3.4%*	—	CLE @ NY
JARRETT ALLENJ. ALLEN	o1.5 Blocks	+210	+164 ×6	5.6	+2.3%	—	CLE @ NY
OG ANUNOBYO. ANUNOBY	o29.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	+195	+153 ×6	5.6	+2.1%*	−1.7%	CLE @ NY
KARL-ANTHONY TOWNSK. TOWNS	o44.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	+450	+320 ×6	5.6 +1	+4.8%*	+2.6%	CLE @ NY
ANDRE DRUMMONDA. DRUMMOND	o6.5 Points	+106	-118 ×9	5.6	+3.0%	−1.4%	CLE @ NY
EVAN MOBLEYE. MOBLEY	o1.5 Blocks	+141	+112 ×10	5.6	+0.7%	−1.4%	CLE @ NY
MILES MCBRIDEM. MCBRIDE	o2.5 Threes alt	+350	+260 ×7	5.6	+2.7%*	—	CLE @ NY
MIKAL BRIDGESM. BRIDGES	o2.5 Rebounds alt	-138	-174 ×10	5.5	+0.6%	−1.4%	CLE @ NY
KARL-ANTHONY TOWNSK. TOWNS	o29.5 Pts + Ast alt	+375	+277 ×7	5.5	+2.7%*	+2.6%	CLE @ NY
OG ANUNOBYO. ANUNOBY	o24.5 Pts + Reb alt	+118	-105 ×7	5.3 +1	+4.3%	−1.7%	CLE @ NY
EVAN MOBLEYE. MOBLEY	o27.5 Pts + Reb + Ast	-101	-125 ×9	5.3	+1.5%	+0.5%	CLE @ NY
DONOVAN MITCHELLD. MITCHELL	o34.5 Pts + Ast alt	+300	+230 ×7	5.3	+1.1%*	+2.6%	CLE @ NY
PEYTON WATSONP. WATSON	o1.5 Blocks	+208	+165 ×9	5.3	+6.9%	−1.4%	CLE @ NY
PEYTON WATSONP. WATSON	o1.5 Threes	+135	+109 ×12	5.2	+3.8%	−1.4%	CLE @ NY
OG ANUNOBYO. ANUNOBY	o19.5 Pts + Ast alt	-120	-148 ×6	5.1 +1	+3.5%*	−1.7%	CLE @ NY
LANDRY SHAMETL. SHAMET	o2.5 Threes alt	+180	+145 ×9	5.1	+3.3%	—	CLE @ NY
JOSH HARTJ. HART	o29.5 Pts + Reb + Ast alt	+475	+345 ×7	5.1	+2.5%*	+2.6%	CLE @ NY
DONOVAN MITCHELLD. MITCHELL	o34.5 Pts + Reb alt	+325	+250 ×7	5.0	+0.3%*	+2.6%	CLE @ NY

Gap is how much better the price is than the other books’ median, in points of probability (+N = more lines on the same ladder at that book are also off). Across 82,000 past outliers, a gap of 3–5 points was worth about nothing against the closing line — it’s mostly the vig — while 5+ points held positive value, which is why the default starts there. EV uses the market’s devigged price (* = estimated, no two-way market at that line). Pulled lines and quotes that stopped updating are removed; PrizePicks is excluded (its prices are placeholders). 7 prices from flagged books hidden — turn on Flagged books to see them.