MLB · Price Outliers

MLB Price Outliers

Player props where one sportsbook is well off the rest of the market on the same player, line and side, across every MLB game on the board. Ranked by how far, in points of probability, so a 200-1 that’s 100-1 elsewhere doesn’t outrank a +750 that’s +500 everywhere else. Pulled lines are dropped, quotes that stopped updating are dropped, and books whose outliers usually turn out to be stale are hidden until you ask for them, all based on how each book’s past outliers held up to the closing line.

MLB · 14 outliers · 5+ pts off the market · −150 to +1000

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14 prices

Player	Bet	Book	Price	Market	Gap	EV	Book record	Game
RICHIE PALACIOSR. PALACIOS	o0.5 Walks		+300	+210 ×6	7.3	+10.9%	+1.6%	MIL @ TB
LIAM HICKSL. HICKS	o0.5 Walks		+230	+167 ×6	7.1	+10.8%	+1.6%	MIL @ TB
JONATHAN ARANDAJ. ARANDA	o0.5 Walks		+200	+152 ×6	6.3	+6.9%	+1.6%	MIL @ TB
DAVID HAMILTOND. HAMILTON	o0.5 Hits		-102	-130 ×11	6.0	+4.6%	+0.8%	MIL @ TB
DAVID HAMILTOND. HAMILTON	o0.5 Hits		-102	-130 ×11	6.0	+4.6%	+1.8%	MIL @ TB
JAKE BAUERSJ. BAUERS	o2.5 Total Bases alt		+426	+300 ×8	6.0 +2	+5.3%*	+5.2%	MIL @ TB
TAYLOR WALLST. WALLS	o0.5 Hits		+156	+122 ×12	5.9	+6.3%	+0.8%	MIL @ TB
JACKSON CHOURIOJ. CHOURIO	o0.5 Walks		+275	+210 ×6	5.6	+9.3%	+1.6%	MIL @ TB
DAVID HAMILTOND. HAMILTON	u0.5 Total Bases		-100	-125 ×5	5.6	+0.6%	−1.6%	MIL @ TB
JONNY DELUCAJ. DELUCA	o1.5 Total Bases alt		+245	+190 ×11	5.5	+3.7%	+5.2%	MIL @ TB
JAKE BAUERSJ. BAUERS	o0.5 Total Bases		-114	-141 ×6	5.3	+0.3%	+1.8%	MIL @ TB
COOPER PRATTC. PRATT	u0.5 Total Bases		+130	+105 ×5	5.3	+1.3%	−1.6%	MIL @ TB
YANDY DIAZY. DIAZ	o1.5 Hits alt		+270	+210 ×12	5.2	+5.3%	+0.8%	MIL @ TB
DAVID HAMILTOND. HAMILTON	o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs alt		+180	+145 ×5	5.1	+1.5%*	+1.6%	MIL @ TB

Gap is how much better the price is than the other books’ median, in points of probability (+N = more lines on the same ladder at that book are also off). Across 82,000 past outliers, a gap of 3–5 points was worth about nothing against the closing line — it’s mostly the vig — while 5+ points held positive value, which is why the default starts there. EV uses the market’s devigged price (* = estimated, no two-way market at that line). Pulled lines and quotes that stopped updating are removed; PrizePicks is excluded (its prices are placeholders).