CFB · Price Outliers

CFB Price Outliers

Player props where one sportsbook is well off the rest of the market on the same player, line and side, across every CFB game on the board. Ranked by how far, in points of probability, so a 200-1 that’s 100-1 elsewhere doesn’t outrank a +750 that’s +500 everywhere else. Pulled lines are dropped, quotes that stopped updating are dropped, and books whose outliers usually turn out to be stale are hidden until you ask for them, all based on how each book’s past outliers held up to the closing line.

CFB · 19 outliers · 5+ pts off the market · −150 to +1000

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19 prices

Player	Bet	Book	Price	Market	Gap	EV	Book record	Game
ELIJAH SESSOMSE. SESSOMS	o0.5 Anytime TD		+340	+121 ×4	22.5	+79.3%*	+1.7%	DEL @ WKU
ELIJAH SESSOMSE. SESSOMS	o0.5 Anytime TD		+340	+121 ×4	22.5	+79.3%*	+1.0%	DEL @ WKU
HENRY BELIN IVH. BELIN IV	o0.5 Anytime TD		+300	+179 ×4	10.9	+24.1%*	+2.6%	SAM HOUSTON STATE BEARKATS @ MOST
MOUSSA BARRYM. BARRY	o0.5 Anytime TD		+550	+295 ×4	9.9	+34.9%*	+2.6%	DEL @ WKU
KADERRIS ROBERTSK. ROBERTS	o0.5 Anytime TD		+195	+130 ×4	9.5	+14.7%*	+1.1%	DEL @ WKU
AJAY ALLENA. ALLEN	o0.5 Anytime TD		-105	-150 ×6	8.8	+10.8%*	+1.1%	DEL @ WKU
ISAIAH MYERSI. MYERS	o0.5 Anytime TD		-105	-149 ×4	8.6	+10.4%*	+1.1%	SAM HOUSTON STATE BEARKATS @ MOST
CONNOR LAIRC. LAIR	o49.5 Rush Yards alt		-135	-188 ×5	7.8	+9.0%*	+1.1%	SAM HOUSTON STATE BEARKATS @ MOST
RAMONE GREEN JR.R. GREEN JR.	o0.5 Anytime TD		+145	+107 ×4	7.5	+7.8%*	+1.1%	SAM HOUSTON STATE BEARKATS @ MOST
BROCK GLENNB. GLENN	o1.5 Pass TDs		+138	+102 ×4	7.5	−0.7%	+1.0%	DEL @ WKU
CONNOR LAIRC. LAIR	o59.5 Rush Yards alt		+117	-115 ×4	7.4 +1	+6.2%	+2.3%	SAM HOUSTON STATE BEARKATS @ MOST
JMARIYAE ROBINSONJ. ROBINSON	o0.5 Anytime TD		+145	+110 ×4	6.8	+6.0%*	+2.6%	SAM HOUSTON STATE BEARKATS @ MOST
QUA'VEZ HUMPHREYSQ. HUMPHREYS	o0.5 Anytime TD		+600	+390 ×6	6.1	+13.5%*	+2.6%	DEL @ WKU
NICK MINICUCCIN. MINICUCCI	o0.5 Anytime TD		+300	+227 ×6	5.6	+3.2%*	+1.1%	DEL @ WKU
VIRON ELLISON JR.V. ELLISON JR.	o0.5 Anytime TD		+260	+200 ×4	5.5	+2.7%*	+1.1%	DEL @ WKU
JONATHAN STAFFORD JR.J. STAFFORD JR.	o0.5 Anytime TD		+155	+124 ×6	5.3	+2.3%*	+1.1%	DEL @ WKU
JONATHAN STAFFORD JR.J. STAFFORD JR.	o0.5 Anytime TD		+155	+124 ×6	5.3	+2.3%*	+1.7%	DEL @ WKU
AJAY ALLENA. ALLEN	o79.5 Rush Yards alt		+250	+195 ×4	5.3	+1.8%*	+1.1%	DEL @ WKU
BRYSON GRAVESB. GRAVES	o24.5 Rec Yards		+101	-122 ×6	5.2	+1.1%	+1.0%	DEL @ WKU

Gap is how much better the price is than the other books’ median, in points of probability (+N = more lines on the same ladder at that book are also off). Across 82,000 past outliers, a gap of 3–5 points was worth about nothing against the closing line — it’s mostly the vig — while 5+ points held positive value, which is why the default starts there. EV uses the market’s devigged price (* = estimated, no two-way market at that line). Pulled lines and quotes that stopped updating are removed; PrizePicks is excluded (its prices are placeholders). 14 prices from flagged books hidden — turn on Flagged books to see them.