WNBA · realized SGP correlations

WNBA League-Wide Correlations

How much each WNBA same-game-parlay combo’s legs actually move together, from realized box scores at real devigged lines. STACK = legs reinforce · flat = independent (a correlation tax is unjustified) · TRAP = legs fight each other.

Fair @ −110 = what a 2-leg parlay of two −110 legs should pay given this correlation (independent = +265; correlated = shorter, anti-correlated = longer). Compare it to your book’s actual SGP price — shorter than fair means you’re being over-taxed. (Normalized to −110 legs; real SGPs also carry extra book hold.)

	SGP combo	Relationship	Corr	Fair @ −110	n
STACK	points 15+ & threes 2+	Same player	+0.36	+174	148
STACK	points over & game total over	Player × game	+0.15	+220	9,523
STACK	threes over & game total over	Player × game	+0.15	+221	5,184
STACK	threes over & team covers	Player × game	+0.13	+227	5,205
STACK	assists over & team covers	Player × game	+0.11	+230	5,111
STACK	threes over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.11	+231	5,263
STACK	points over & team covers	Player × game	+0.11	+231	9,569
STACK	assists over & game total over	Player × game	+0.11	+232	5,079
STACK	points over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.10	+233	9,666
STACK	assists over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.10	+235	5,159
STACK	points 15+ & rebounds 6+	Same player	+0.09	+236	147
STACK	rebounds over & team covers	Player × game	+0.07	+242	7,735
STACK	rebounds over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.06	+245	7,809
STACK	rebounds 6+ & assists 4+	Same player	+0.04	+250	145
STACK	points 15+ & assists 4+	Same player	+0.04	+251	149
FLAT	rebounds 6+ & teammate threes 2+	Teammates	+0.04	+253	45,028
FLAT	points 15+ & teammate assists 4+	Teammates	+0.04	+253	45,028
FLAT	assists 4+ & teammate threes 2+	Teammates	+0.03	+254	45,028
FLAT	rebounds 6+ & threes 2+	Same player	+0.03	+256	141
FLAT	rebounds 6+ & teammate assists 4+	Teammates	+0.02	+257	45,028
FLAT	assists 4+ & threes 2+	Same player	+0.01	+261	148
FLAT	points 15+ & teammate rebounds 6+	Teammates	+0.00	+264	45,028
FLAT	threes 2+ & teammate threes 2+ (2 players)	Teammates	-0.01	+268	45,028
FLAT	points 15+ & teammate threes 2+	Teammates	-0.01	+268	45,028
FLAT	points 15+ & teammate points 15+ (2 players)	Teammates	-0.04	+278	45,028
TRAP	rebounds over & game total over	Player × game	-0.05	+283	7,699
TRAP	assists 4+ & teammate assists 4+ (2 players)	Teammates	-0.05	+283	45,028
TRAP	rebounds 6+ & teammate rebounds 6+ (2 players)	Teammates	-0.06	+287	45,028

Same-player / teammate thresholds are representative (the correlation is stable across nearby lines). Player × game rows have no fixed line — each leg grades over its real market line, and the correlation grows with the player’s scoring level, so it’s a pooled average. Realized correlation only — the book’s tax needs SGP captures.