NHL · realized SGP correlations

NHL League-Wide Correlations

How much each NHL same-game-parlay combo’s legs actually move together, from realized box scores at real devigged lines. STACK = legs reinforce · flat = independent (a correlation tax is unjustified) · TRAP = legs fight each other.

Fair @ −110 = what a 2-leg parlay of two −110 legs should pay given this correlation (independent = +265; correlated = shorter, anti-correlated = longer). Compare it to your book’s actual SGP price — shorter than fair means you’re being over-taxed. (Normalized to −110 legs; real SGPs also carry extra book hold.)

	SGP combo	Relationship	Corr	Fair @ −110	n
STACK	points over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.23	+201	59,564
STACK	points over & game total over	Player × game	+0.22	+205	56,882
STACK	shots 3+ & goals 1+	Same player	+0.21	+206	912
STACK	points over & team covers	Player × game	+0.20	+208	59,524
STACK	assists over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.19	+210	58,146
STACK	assists over & game total over	Player × game	+0.18	+213	55,528
STACK	assists over & team covers	Player × game	+0.16	+219	58,106
STACK	goals over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.14	+224	117,240
STACK	shots 3+ & points 1+	Same player	+0.13	+226	944
STACK	goals over & game total over	Player × game	+0.12	+229	111,750
STACK	goals over & team covers	Player × game	+0.11	+230	117,136
STACK	points 1+ & teammate points 1+ (2 players)	Teammates	+0.08	+241	2,242,760
STACK	assists 1+ & teammate points 1+	Teammates	+0.07	+244	2,242,760
STACK	goals 1+ & teammate assists 1+	Teammates	+0.06	+245	2,242,760
STACK	goals 1+ & teammate points 1+	Teammates	+0.05	+250	2,242,760
FLAT	assists 1+ & teammate assists 1+ (2 players)	Teammates	+0.04	+252	2,242,760
FLAT	shots over & game total over	Player × game	+0.03	+253	51,206
FLAT	shots 3+ & assists 1+	Same player	+0.02	+259	934
FLAT	shots 3+ & teammate shots 3+ (2 players)	Teammates	+0.01	+262	2,242,760
FLAT	shots 3+ & teammate assists 1+	Teammates	+0.01	+262	2,242,760
FLAT	shots 3+ & teammate points 1+	Teammates	+0.00	+264	2,242,760
FLAT	goals 1+ & assists 1+	Same player	+0.00	+264	927
FLAT	shots over & team covers	Player × game	-0.00	+264	53,602
FLAT	shots over & team ML (win)	Player × game	-0.00	+265	53,637
FLAT	goals 1+ & teammate goals 1+ (2 players)	Teammates	-0.00	+265	2,242,760
FLAT	shots 3+ & teammate goals 1+	Teammates	-0.01	+267	2,242,760

Same-player / teammate thresholds are representative (the correlation is stable across nearby lines). Player × game rows have no fixed line — each leg grades over its real market line, and the correlation grows with the player’s scoring level, so it’s a pooled average. Realized correlation only — the book’s tax needs SGP captures.