SGPLAB

NFL · realized SGP correlations

NFL League-Wide Correlations

How much each NFL same-game-parlay combo’s legs actually move together, from realized box scores at real devigged lines. STACK = legs reinforce · flat = independent (a correlation tax is unjustified) · TRAP = legs fight each other.

Fair @ −110 = what a 2-leg parlay of two −110 legs should pay given this correlation (independent = +265; correlated = shorter, anti-correlated = longer). Compare it to your book’s actual SGP price — shorter than fair means you’re being over-taxed. (Normalized to −110 legs; real SGPs also carry extra book hold.)

SGP comboRelationshipCorrFair @ −110n
STACKRB rush yds 60+ & RB rush att 15+Same player+0.62+13394
STACKWR rec yds 60+ & WR receptions 5+Same player+0.55+143231
STACKQB pass yds 250+ & QB pass att 30+Same player+0.42+16465
STACKQB pass yds 250+ & QB pass TDs 2+Same player+0.36+17464
STACKQB pass TDs over & game total overPlayer × game+0.34+1781,927
STACKQB pass yds over & game total overPlayer × game+0.26+1951,911
STACKRB rush att over & team coversPlayer × game+0.20+2084,410
STACKRB rush att over & team ML (win)Player × game+0.19+2104,487
STACKQB pass TDs over & team coversPlayer × game+0.18+2121,915
STACKQB pass att 30+ & QB pass TDs 2+Same player+0.17+21667
STACKQB pass TDs over & team ML (win)Player × game+0.16+2171,950
STACKQB pass yds over & team coversPlayer × game+0.12+2291,899
STACKRB rush yds over & team coversPlayer × game+0.09+2365,630
STACKRB rush yds over & team ML (win)Player × game+0.09+2365,730
STACKQB pass att over & game total overPlayer × game+0.09+2371,882
STACKWR rec yds over & game total overPlayer × game+0.08+23911,906
STACKQB pass yds over & team ML (win)Player × game+0.08+2401,933
STACKQB pass yds 250+ & teammate WR rec yds 60+Teammates+0.08+24084,532
STACKQB pass att 30+ & teammate WR receptions 5+Teammates+0.07+24384,532
STACKQB pass yds 250+ & teammate WR receptions 5+Teammates+0.07+24384,532
STACKQB pass TDs 2+ & RB rush yds 60+Same player+0.06+24621
STACKWR receptions over & game total overPlayer × game+0.06+24611,231
STACKQB pass TDs 2+ & teammate WR rec yds 60+Teammates+0.05+24784,532
STACKRB rush att 15+ & WR receptions 5+Same player+0.05+24960
STACKQB pass att 30+ & teammate WR rec yds 60+Teammates+0.05+24984,532
STACKQB pass TDs 2+ & teammate WR receptions 5+Teammates+0.04+25184,532
FLATRB rush yds over & game total overPlayer × game+0.04+2535,665
FLATRB rush att 15+ & WR rec yds 60+Same player+0.03+25637
FLATRB rush att 15+ & teammate WR rec yds 60+Teammates+0.02+25784,532
FLATRB rush yds 60+ & teammate WR rec yds 60+Teammates+0.02+25984,532
FLATQB pass TDs 2+ & teammate RB rush att 15+Teammates+0.02+25984,532
FLATWR rec yds over & team coversPlayer × game+0.02+25911,825
FLATQB pass TDs 2+ & teammate RB rush yds 60+Teammates+0.01+26084,532
FLATWR rec yds over & team ML (win)Player × game+0.01+26112,047
FLATQB pass yds 250+ & teammate RB rush att 15+Teammates+0.01+26184,532
FLATRB rush att 15+ & teammate WR receptions 5+Teammates+0.01+26284,532
FLATQB pass att 30+ & teammate RB rush att 15+Teammates+0.01+26284,532
FLATRB rush yds 60+ & WR receptions 5+Same player+0.01+26369
FLATRB rush att over & game total overPlayer × game+0.00+2634,433
FLATRB rush yds 60+ & teammate WR receptions 5+Teammates+0.00+26384,532
FLATQB pass yds 250+ & teammate RB rush yds 60+Teammates+0.00+26484,532
FLATQB pass att 30+ & teammate RB rush yds 60+Teammates-0.00+26584,532
FLATQB pass att 30+ & RB rush yds 60+Same player-0.01+26722
FLATRB rush yds 60+ & WR rec yds 60+Same player-0.02+27041
FLATWR receptions 5+ & teammate WR receptions 5+ (2 players)Teammates-0.02+27384,532
FLATWR receptions over & team coversPlayer × game-0.03+27411,152
FLATWR rec yds 60+ & teammate WR receptions 5+Teammates-0.03+27584,532
FLATWR receptions over & team ML (win)Player × game-0.03+27511,369
FLATWR rec yds 60+ & teammate WR rec yds 60+ (2 players)Teammates-0.03+27684,532
TRAPQB pass yds 250+ & RB rush yds 60+Same player-0.05+28120
TRAPRB rush yds 60+ & teammate RB rush yds 60+ (2 players)Teammates-0.05+28284,532
TRAPRB rush yds 60+ & teammate RB rush att 15+Teammates-0.06+28584,532
TRAPRB rush att 15+ & teammate RB rush att 15+ (2 players)Teammates-0.06+28684,532
TRAPQB pass att over & team coversPlayer × game-0.19+3401,870
TRAPQB pass att over & team ML (win)Player × game-0.19+3411,904

Same-player / teammate thresholds are representative (the correlation is stable across nearby lines). Player × game rows have no fixed line — each leg grades over its real market line, and the correlation grows with the player’s scoring level, so it’s a pooled average. Realized correlation only — the book’s tax needs SGP captures.