NFL · realized SGP correlations

NFL League-Wide Correlations

How much each NFL same-game-parlay combo’s legs actually move together, from realized box scores at real devigged lines. STACK = legs reinforce · flat = independent (a correlation tax is unjustified) · TRAP = legs fight each other.

Fair @ −110 = what a 2-leg parlay of two −110 legs should pay given this correlation (independent = +265; correlated = shorter, anti-correlated = longer). Compare it to your book’s actual SGP price — shorter than fair means you’re being over-taxed. (Normalized to −110 legs; real SGPs also carry extra book hold.)

	SGP combo	Relationship	Corr	Fair @ −110	n
STACK	RB rush yds 60+ & RB rush att 15+	Same player	+0.62	+133	73
STACK	WR rec yds 60+ & WR receptions 5+	Same player	+0.58	+138	192
STACK	QB pass yds 250+ & QB pass att 30+	Same player	+0.42	+164	49
STACK	QB pass yds 250+ & QB pass TDs 2+	Same player	+0.37	+173	50
STACK	QB pass TDs over & game total over	Player × game	+0.33	+180	1,745
STACK	QB pass yds over & game total over	Player × game	+0.27	+194	1,729
STACK	RB rush att over & team covers	Player × game	+0.19	+210	3,981
STACK	RB rush att over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.19	+212	4,042
STACK	QB pass TDs over & team covers	Player × game	+0.18	+212	1,737
STACK	QB pass att 30+ & QB pass TDs 2+	Same player	+0.16	+218	51
STACK	QB pass TDs over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.16	+219	1,766
STACK	QB pass yds over & team covers	Player × game	+0.12	+229	1,721
STACK	RB rush yds over & team covers	Player × game	+0.09	+236	5,074
STACK	WR rec yds over & game total over	Player × game	+0.09	+237	10,696
STACK	RB rush yds over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.09	+238	5,155
STACK	QB pass att over & game total over	Player × game	+0.08	+239	1,700
STACK	QB pass yds over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.08	+239	1,749
STACK	QB pass yds 250+ & teammate WR rec yds 60+	Teammates	+0.08	+240	50,536
STACK	RB rush yds 60+ & WR receptions 5+	Same player	+0.07	+243	56
STACK	QB pass att 30+ & teammate WR receptions 5+	Teammates	+0.07	+243	50,536
STACK	QB pass yds 250+ & teammate WR receptions 5+	Teammates	+0.06	+245	50,536
STACK	RB rush att 15+ & WR receptions 5+	Same player	+0.06	+246	50
STACK	WR receptions over & game total over	Player × game	+0.06	+247	10,085
STACK	QB pass TDs 2+ & teammate WR rec yds 60+	Teammates	+0.05	+247	50,536
STACK	QB pass att 30+ & teammate WR rec yds 60+	Teammates	+0.05	+249	50,536
STACK	QB pass TDs 2+ & teammate WR receptions 5+	Teammates	+0.04	+250	50,536
FLAT	RB rush yds over & game total over	Player × game	+0.03	+254	5,093
FLAT	WR rec yds over & team covers	Player × game	+0.02	+257	10,642
FLAT	QB pass TDs 2+ & teammate RB rush att 15+	Teammates	+0.02	+258	50,536
FLAT	RB rush yds 60+ & teammate WR rec yds 60+	Teammates	+0.02	+258	50,536
FLAT	RB rush att 15+ & teammate WR rec yds 60+	Teammates	+0.02	+258	50,536
FLAT	WR rec yds over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.02	+259	10,828
FLAT	QB pass TDs 2+ & teammate RB rush yds 60+	Teammates	+0.01	+260	50,536
FLAT	QB pass TDs 2+ & RB rush yds 60+	Same player	+0.01	+260	16
FLAT	QB pass yds 250+ & teammate RB rush att 15+	Teammates	+0.01	+262	50,536
FLAT	RB rush att 15+ & teammate WR receptions 5+	Teammates	+0.01	+263	50,536
FLAT	QB pass att 30+ & teammate RB rush att 15+	Teammates	+0.00	+263	50,536
FLAT	RB rush yds 60+ & teammate WR receptions 5+	Teammates	+0.00	+263	50,536
FLAT	RB rush att over & game total over	Player × game	+0.00	+264	3,992
FLAT	QB pass yds 250+ & teammate RB rush yds 60+	Teammates	+0.00	+264	50,536
FLAT	QB pass att 30+ & teammate RB rush yds 60+	Teammates	-0.00	+266	50,536
FLAT	RB rush att 15+ & WR rec yds 60+	Same player	-0.01	+267	28
FLAT	QB pass att 30+ & RB rush yds 60+	Same player	-0.02	+271	17
FLAT	WR receptions 5+ & teammate WR receptions 5+ (2 players)	Teammates	-0.03	+275	50,536
FLAT	WR receptions over & team ML (win)	Player × game	-0.03	+275	10,213
FLAT	WR receptions over & team covers	Player × game	-0.03	+275	10,033
FLAT	WR rec yds 60+ & teammate WR receptions 5+	Teammates	-0.03	+276	50,536
FLAT	WR rec yds 60+ & teammate WR rec yds 60+ (2 players)	Teammates	-0.04	+277	50,536
TRAP	RB rush yds 60+ & WR rec yds 60+	Same player	-0.05	+282	33
TRAP	RB rush yds 60+ & teammate RB rush yds 60+ (2 players)	Teammates	-0.05	+284	50,536
TRAP	QB pass yds 250+ & RB rush yds 60+	Same player	-0.06	+284	17
TRAP	RB rush yds 60+ & teammate RB rush att 15+	Teammates	-0.06	+285	50,536
TRAP	RB rush att 15+ & teammate RB rush att 15+ (2 players)	Teammates	-0.06	+286	50,536
TRAP	QB pass att over & team ML (win)	Player × game	-0.18	+338	1,720
TRAP	QB pass att over & team covers	Player × game	-0.19	+341	1,692

Same-player / teammate thresholds are representative (the correlation is stable across nearby lines). Player × game rows have no fixed line — each leg grades over its real market line, and the correlation grows with the player’s scoring level, so it’s a pooled average. Realized correlation only — the book’s tax needs SGP captures.