NBA · realized SGP correlations

NBA League-Wide Correlations

How much each NBA same-game-parlay combo’s legs actually move together, from realized box scores at real devigged lines. STACK = legs reinforce · flat = independent (a correlation tax is unjustified) · TRAP = legs fight each other.

Fair @ −110 = what a 2-leg parlay of two −110 legs should pay given this correlation (independent = +265; correlated = shorter, anti-correlated = longer). Compare it to your book’s actual SGP price — shorter than fair means you’re being over-taxed. (Normalized to −110 legs; real SGPs also carry extra book hold.)

	SGP combo	Relationship	Corr	Fair @ −110	n
STACK	points 15+ & threes 2+	Same player	+0.38	+171	488
STACK	points 15+ & rebounds 6+	Same player	+0.12	+228	520
STACK	points over & game total over	Player × game	+0.10	+234	62,094
STACK	points over & team covers	Player × game	+0.09	+237	62,393
STACK	points over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.08	+238	62,823
STACK	rebounds 6+ & assists 4+	Same player	+0.08	+239	509
STACK	points 15+ & assists 4+	Same player	+0.08	+239	511
STACK	threes over & team covers	Player × game	+0.08	+240	54,945
STACK	threes over & game total over	Player × game	+0.08	+241	54,686
STACK	assists over & game total over	Player × game	+0.07	+242	59,022
STACK	assists over & team covers	Player × game	+0.07	+242	59,280
STACK	threes over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.07	+243	55,331
STACK	assists over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.07	+243	59,702
STACK	rebounds over & team covers	Player × game	+0.07	+244	61,638
STACK	rebounds over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.06	+245	62,067
STACK	assists 4+ & threes 2+	Same player	+0.04	+251	484
STACK	rebounds 6+ & threes 2+	Same player	+0.04	+252	487
FLAT	rebounds 6+ & teammate threes 2+	Teammates	+0.02	+257	309,612
FLAT	assists 4+ & teammate threes 2+	Teammates	+0.02	+258	309,612
FLAT	rebounds 6+ & teammate assists 4+	Teammates	+0.01	+263	309,612
FLAT	points 15+ & teammate rebounds 6+	Teammates	+0.00	+263	309,612
FLAT	points 15+ & teammate assists 4+	Teammates	+0.00	+264	309,612
FLAT	points 15+ & teammate threes 2+	Teammates	-0.02	+271	309,612
FLAT	threes 2+ & teammate threes 2+ (2 players)	Teammates	-0.02	+271	309,612
FLAT	rebounds 6+ & teammate rebounds 6+ (2 players)	Teammates	-0.04	+277	309,612
TRAP	points 15+ & teammate points 15+ (2 players)	Teammates	-0.04	+279	309,612
TRAP	rebounds over & game total over	Player × game	-0.05	+280	61,345
TRAP	assists 4+ & teammate assists 4+ (2 players)	Teammates	-0.05	+281	309,612

Same-player / teammate thresholds are representative (the correlation is stable across nearby lines). Player × game rows have no fixed line — each leg grades over its real market line, and the correlation grows with the player’s scoring level, so it’s a pooled average. Realized correlation only — the book’s tax needs SGP captures.