SGPLAB

NBA · realized SGP correlations

NBA League-Wide Correlations

How much each NBA same-game-parlay combo’s legs actually move together, from realized box scores at real devigged lines. STACK = legs reinforce · flat = independent (a correlation tax is unjustified) · TRAP = legs fight each other.

Fair @ −110 = what a 2-leg parlay of two −110 legs should pay given this correlation (independent = +265; correlated = shorter, anti-correlated = longer). Compare it to your book’s actual SGP price — shorter than fair means you’re being over-taxed. (Normalized to −110 legs; real SGPs also carry extra book hold.)

SGP comboRelationshipCorrFair @ −110n
STACKpoints 15+ & threes 2+Same player+0.38+171482
STACKpoints 15+ & rebounds 6+Same player+0.12+229517
STACKpoints over & game total overPlayer × game+0.10+23349,195
STACKpoints over & team coversPlayer × game+0.09+23749,602
STACKpoints over & team ML (win)Player × game+0.09+23849,827
STACKrebounds 6+ & assists 4+Same player+0.08+239505
STACKpoints 15+ & assists 4+Same player+0.08+239506
STACKthrees over & team coversPlayer × game+0.08+24043,412
STACKthrees over & game total overPlayer × game+0.08+24143,060
STACKassists over & team coversPlayer × game+0.07+24146,755
STACKassists over & game total overPlayer × game+0.07+24146,389
STACKassists over & team ML (win)Player × game+0.07+24346,975
STACKthrees over & team ML (win)Player × game+0.07+24343,615
STACKrebounds over & team coversPlayer × game+0.07+24448,933
STACKrebounds over & team ML (win)Player × game+0.06+24649,158
STACKassists 4+ & threes 2+Same player+0.04+251476
FLATrebounds 6+ & threes 2+Same player+0.04+252482
FLATrebounds 6+ & teammate threes 2+Teammates+0.02+257305,556
FLATassists 4+ & teammate threes 2+Teammates+0.02+259305,556
FLATrebounds 6+ & teammate assists 4+Teammates+0.01+263305,556
FLATpoints 15+ & teammate rebounds 6+Teammates+0.00+263305,556
FLATpoints 15+ & teammate assists 4+Teammates+0.00+264305,556
FLATpoints 15+ & teammate threes 2+Teammates-0.02+271305,556
FLATthrees 2+ & teammate threes 2+ (2 players)Teammates-0.02+271305,556
FLATrebounds 6+ & teammate rebounds 6+ (2 players)Teammates-0.04+277305,556
TRAPrebounds over & game total overPlayer × game-0.04+27948,533
TRAPpoints 15+ & teammate points 15+ (2 players)Teammates-0.04+279305,556
TRAPassists 4+ & teammate assists 4+ (2 players)Teammates-0.05+282305,556

Same-player / teammate thresholds are representative (the correlation is stable across nearby lines). Player × game rows have no fixed line — each leg grades over its real market line, and the correlation grows with the player’s scoring level, so it’s a pooled average. Realized correlation only — the book’s tax needs SGP captures.