MLB · realized SGP correlations

MLB League-Wide Correlations

How much each MLB same-game-parlay combo’s legs actually move together, from realized box scores at real devigged lines. STACK = legs reinforce · flat = independent (a correlation tax is unjustified) · TRAP = legs fight each other.

Fair @ −110 = what a 2-leg parlay of two −110 legs should pay given this correlation (independent = +265; correlated = shorter, anti-correlated = longer). Compare it to your book’s actual SGP price — shorter than fair means you’re being over-taxed. (Normalized to −110 legs; real SGPs also carry extra book hold.)

	SGP combo	Relationship	Corr	Fair @ −110	n
STACK	total bases 2+ & RBI 1+	Same player	+0.50	+150	771
STACK	hits allowed 5+ & ER 2+	Same player	+0.48	+154	350
STACK	total bases 2+ & runs 1+	Same player	+0.48	+154	776
STACK	hits 1+ & runs 1+	Same player	+0.41	+165	779
STACK	hits 1+ & RBI 1+	Same player	+0.41	+166	774
STACK	ER over & game total over	Player × game	+0.36	+174	15,913
STACK	RBI 1+ & runs 1+	Same player	+0.36	+175	774
STACK	runs over & game total over	Player × game	+0.26	+196	153,396
STACK	outs over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.24	+200	14,733
STACK	K 6+ & outs 18+	Same player	+0.23	+201	317
STACK	outs over & team covers	Player × game	+0.23	+202	14,724
STACK	hits allowed over & game total over	Player × game	+0.22	+203	15,791
STACK	RBI over & game total over	Player × game	+0.20	+209	153,596
STACK	total bases over & game total over	Player × game	+0.15	+221	154,098
STACK	hits over & game total over	Player × game	+0.14	+222	154,176
STACK	RBI 1+ & teammate runs 1+	Teammates	+0.14	+224	926,906
STACK	runs 1+ & teammate runs 1+ (2 players)	Teammates	+0.13	+227	926,906
STACK	K over & team covers	Player × game	+0.12	+228	16,985
STACK	K over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.12	+229	16,997
STACK	HR over & game total over	Player × game	+0.12	+230	152,655
STACK	ER 2+ & walks 2+	Same player	+0.11	+231	348
STACK	total bases 2+ & teammate runs 1+	Teammates	+0.09	+238	926,906
STACK	hits 1+ & teammate runs 1+	Teammates	+0.08	+239	926,906
STACK	walks over & game total over	Player × game	+0.07	+242	15,602
STACK	total bases 2+ & teammate RBI 1+	Teammates	+0.06	+245	926,906
STACK	hits 1+ & teammate RBI 1+	Teammates	+0.06	+246	926,906
STACK	RBI 1+ & teammate RBI 1+ (2 players)	Teammates	+0.05	+247	926,906
STACK	runs 1+ & teammate HR 1+	Teammates	+0.05	+250	926,906
STACK	total bases 2+ & teammate total bases 2+ (2 players)	Teammates	+0.04	+251	926,906
FLAT	hits 1+ & teammate total bases 2+	Teammates	+0.04	+252	926,906
FLAT	hits 1+ & teammate hits 1+ (2 players)	Teammates	+0.04	+252	926,906
FLAT	total bases 2+ & teammate HR 1+	Teammates	+0.02	+258	926,906
FLAT	total bases over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.02	+258	160,000
FLAT	hits over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.02	+259	160,080
FLAT	hits over & team covers	Player × game	+0.02	+259	159,973
FLAT	hits 1+ & teammate HR 1+	Teammates	+0.02	+259	926,906
FLAT	total bases over & team covers	Player × game	+0.02	+259	159,893
FLAT	runs over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.01	+260	159,263
FLAT	RBI over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.01	+260	159,470
FLAT	HR 1+ & teammate HR 1+ (2 players)	Teammates	+0.01	+260	926,906
FLAT	RBI 1+ & teammate HR 1+	Teammates	+0.01	+261	926,906
FLAT	RBI over & team covers	Player × game	+0.01	+261	159,363
FLAT	HR over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.01	+261	158,478
FLAT	runs over & team covers	Player × game	+0.01	+262	159,156
FLAT	HR over & team covers	Player × game	+0.01	+262	158,372
TRAP	hits allowed 5+ & walks 2+	Same player	-0.04	+279	347
TRAP	walks over & team ML (win)	Player × game	-0.07	+290	16,193
TRAP	walks over & team covers	Player × game	-0.08	+291	16,183
TRAP	K 6+ & walks 2+	Same player	-0.08	+294	331
TRAP	K over & game total over	Player × game	-0.11	+307	16,379
TRAP	K 6+ & hits allowed 5+	Same player	-0.12	+310	333
TRAP	K 6+ & ER 2+	Same player	-0.15	+321	335
TRAP	outs 18+ & hits allowed 5+	Same player	-0.16	+326	324
TRAP	outs 18+ & walks 2+	Same player	-0.18	+334	322
TRAP	hits allowed over & team ML (win)	Player × game	-0.22	+357	16,385
TRAP	hits allowed over & team covers	Player × game	-0.23	+359	16,373
TRAP	outs over & game total over	Player × game	-0.26	+378	14,179
TRAP	outs 18+ & ER 2+	Same player	-0.27	+384	325
TRAP	ER over & team covers	Player × game	-0.36	+445	16,501
TRAP	ER over & team ML (win)	Player × game	-0.37	+446	16,513

Same-player / teammate thresholds are representative (the correlation is stable across nearby lines). Player × game rows have no fixed line — each leg grades over its real market line, and the correlation grows with the player’s scoring level, so it’s a pooled average. Realized correlation only — the book’s tax needs SGP captures.