MLB · realized SGP correlations

MLB League-Wide Correlations

How much each MLB same-game-parlay combo’s legs actually move together, from realized box scores at real devigged lines. STACK = legs reinforce · flat = independent (a correlation tax is unjustified) · TRAP = legs fight each other.

Fair @ −110 = what a 2-leg parlay of two −110 legs should pay given this correlation (independent = +265; correlated = shorter, anti-correlated = longer). Compare it to your book’s actual SGP price — shorter than fair means you’re being over-taxed. (Normalized to −110 legs; real SGPs also carry extra book hold.)

	SGP combo	Relationship	Corr	Fair @ −110	n
STACK	total bases 2+ & RBI 1+	Same player	+0.50	+150	784
STACK	hits allowed 5+ & ER 2+	Same player	+0.48	+153	357
STACK	total bases 2+ & runs 1+	Same player	+0.48	+154	788
STACK	hits 1+ & runs 1+	Same player	+0.41	+165	792
STACK	hits 1+ & RBI 1+	Same player	+0.41	+166	787
STACK	ER over & game total over	Player × game	+0.36	+175	16,594
STACK	RBI 1+ & runs 1+	Same player	+0.36	+175	787
STACK	runs over & game total over	Player × game	+0.25	+196	159,676
STACK	K 6+ & outs 18+	Same player	+0.24	+200	326
STACK	outs over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.23	+200	15,431
STACK	outs over & team covers	Player × game	+0.23	+202	15,420
STACK	hits allowed over & game total over	Player × game	+0.22	+204	16,447
STACK	RBI over & game total over	Player × game	+0.20	+209	159,884
STACK	total bases over & game total over	Player × game	+0.15	+221	160,419
STACK	hits over & game total over	Player × game	+0.14	+222	160,494
STACK	RBI 1+ & teammate runs 1+	Teammates	+0.14	+224	974,324
STACK	runs 1+ & teammate runs 1+ (2 players)	Teammates	+0.13	+227	974,324
STACK	K over & team covers	Player × game	+0.12	+228	17,668
STACK	K over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.12	+229	17,682
STACK	HR over & game total over	Player × game	+0.11	+230	158,899
STACK	ER 2+ & walks 2+	Same player	+0.11	+232	355
STACK	total bases 2+ & teammate runs 1+	Teammates	+0.09	+238	974,324
STACK	hits 1+ & teammate runs 1+	Teammates	+0.08	+240	974,324
STACK	walks over & game total over	Player × game	+0.07	+243	16,237
STACK	hits 1+ & teammate RBI 1+	Teammates	+0.06	+246	974,324
STACK	total bases 2+ & teammate RBI 1+	Teammates	+0.06	+246	974,324
STACK	RBI 1+ & teammate RBI 1+ (2 players)	Teammates	+0.05	+248	974,324
STACK	runs 1+ & teammate HR 1+	Teammates	+0.04	+250	974,324
STACK	total bases 2+ & teammate total bases 2+ (2 players)	Teammates	+0.04	+251	974,324
FLAT	hits 1+ & teammate hits 1+ (2 players)	Teammates	+0.04	+252	974,324
FLAT	hits 1+ & teammate total bases 2+	Teammates	+0.04	+252	974,324
FLAT	total bases over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.02	+258	166,650
FLAT	total bases 2+ & teammate HR 1+	Teammates	+0.02	+258	974,324
FLAT	hits over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.02	+259	166,727
FLAT	hits over & team covers	Player × game	+0.02	+259	166,600
FLAT	total bases over & team covers	Player × game	+0.02	+259	166,523
FLAT	hits 1+ & teammate HR 1+	Teammates	+0.02	+259	974,324
FLAT	runs over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.01	+260	165,872
FLAT	RBI over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.01	+260	166,087
FLAT	HR 1+ & teammate HR 1+ (2 players)	Teammates	+0.01	+260	974,324
FLAT	RBI 1+ & teammate HR 1+	Teammates	+0.01	+261	974,324
FLAT	HR over & team ML (win)	Player × game	+0.01	+261	165,051
FLAT	RBI over & team covers	Player × game	+0.01	+261	165,960
FLAT	HR over & team covers	Player × game	+0.01	+262	164,926
FLAT	runs over & team covers	Player × game	+0.01	+262	165,745
TRAP	hits allowed 5+ & walks 2+	Same player	-0.04	+279	354
TRAP	walks over & team ML (win)	Player × game	-0.07	+289	16,859
TRAP	walks over & team covers	Player × game	-0.07	+291	16,847
TRAP	K 6+ & walks 2+	Same player	-0.08	+293	338
TRAP	K over & game total over	Player × game	-0.12	+307	17,030
TRAP	K 6+ & hits allowed 5+	Same player	-0.12	+310	340
TRAP	K 6+ & ER 2+	Same player	-0.15	+320	342
TRAP	outs 18+ & hits allowed 5+	Same player	-0.15	+323	333
TRAP	outs 18+ & walks 2+	Same player	-0.17	+332	331
TRAP	hits allowed over & team ML (win)	Player × game	-0.22	+356	17,075
TRAP	hits allowed over & team covers	Player × game	-0.22	+357	17,061
TRAP	outs over & game total over	Player × game	-0.26	+376	14,843
TRAP	outs 18+ & ER 2+	Same player	-0.27	+381	334
TRAP	ER over & team covers	Player × game	-0.36	+444	17,214
TRAP	ER over & team ML (win)	Player × game	-0.36	+444	17,228

Same-player / teammate thresholds are representative (the correlation is stable across nearby lines). Player × game rows have no fixed line — each leg grades over its real market line, and the correlation grows with the player’s scoring level, so it’s a pooled average. Realized correlation only — the book’s tax needs SGP captures.