NFL · margins & totals

NFL Key Numbers

A −3 and a −3.5 are not the same bet. Where the number sits decides whether you push, and it prices the half-point you pay to move off it. This is where NFL games actually landed — every final margin and every final total, 1999–2025. 15.1% of the last 7,276 games were decided by exactly 3.

The half-point across a number is worth exactly the share of games that land on it, so the Landed % column is the price you should be willing to pay to buy through it. A number is tagged key when it stands at least 1.3× above its neighbours — a real spike, not just a common number. Some sports have no key numbers at all, and the board says so rather than inventing them.

Closing spreadtoavailable 0–27

Full game · how often each margin came up7,276 games · 1999–2025 · showing margins 0–28

Bar height is how often each margin came up — that is what the half-point across it is worth. marks a key number: one that spikes above the numbers immediately around it. The two are different, so the tallest bar is not always marked. Hover or tap a bar for the detail; the spread columns below carry the market side.

Won by ⇅	Landed % ⇅	Games ⇅	Spike ⇅	Cum % ⇅	Posted ⇅	Push % ⇅
3	15.12%	1100	11.01pt	23.5%	1153	17.7%
7	9.03%	657	5.38pt	47.0%	491	7.7%
6	5.99%	436	1.69pt	38.0%	354	6.8%
10	5.51%	401	3.51pt	57.9%	213	8.5%
4	4.88%	355	-0.14pt	28.4%	342	3.5%
14	4.88%	355	3.00pt	69.5%	90	4.4%
1	4.16%	303	0.11pt	4.4%	546	3.7%
2	4.05%	295	-0.47pt	8.4%	169	3.6%
8	3.72%	271	-2.03pt	50.7%	100	0.0%
5	3.57%	260	-3.94pt	32.0%	165	1.8%
17	3.57%	260	1.77pt	76.7%	16	—
13	2.76%	201	0.76pt	64.6%	73	1.4%
21	2.65%	193	1.49pt	85.0%	—	—
11	2.35%	171	0.14pt	60.2%	80	3.8%
18	2.32%	169	0.19pt	79.0%	4	—
20	2.14%	156	0.39pt	82.3%	1	—
24	2.14%	156	1.06pt	89.3%	1	—
16	2.12%	154	-0.83pt	73.1%	14	—
12	1.65%	120	-2.17pt	61.9%	33	3.0%
28	1.65%	120	0.99pt	94.2%	—	—
9	1.61%	117	-3.01pt	52.4%	153	0.0%
15	1.50%	109	-1.67pt	71.0%	12	—
27	1.29%	94	0.33pt	92.5%	1	—
19	1.18%	86	-1.31pt	80.2%	3	—
31	1.18%	86	0.69pt	96.4%	—	—
23	1.14%	83	-0.50pt	87.2%	—	—
25	1.14%	83	-0.08pt	90.4%	—	—
22	1.03%	75	-1.11pt	86.0%	2	—
26	0.78%	57	-0.69pt	91.2%	—	—
35	0.59%	43	0.27pt	98.3%	—	—

Margins are absolute (won by N, either side) and totals are the combined final score, both including overtime — the way the full-game market settles. Segment views (halves, quarters, periods, first innings) come from the linescore tables, so a segment counts only when every one of its periods is present. All-Star games, preseason and exhibitions are excluded. Posted and Push % come from closing lines, which cover a shorter span than the scores everywhere except the NFL — there, nflverse carries the closing spread and total on every game back to 1999, so the two line up exactly. This is where the numbers actually landed — the half-point across a key number is worth exactly the games in that bar.