NFL · margins & totals

NFL Key Numbers

A −3 and a −3.5 are not the same bet. Where the number sits decides whether you push, and it prices the half-point you pay to move off it. This is where NFL games actually landed — every final margin and every final total, 1999–2026. 15.1% of the last 7,370 games were decided by exactly 3.

The half-point across a number is worth exactly the share of games that land on it, so the Landed % column is the price you should be willing to pay to buy through it. A number is tagged key when it stands at least 1.3× above its neighbours — a real spike, not just a common number. Some sports have no key numbers at all, and the board says so rather than inventing them.

Closing spreadtoavailable 0–27

Full game · how often each margin came up7,370 games · 1999–2026 · showing margins 0–28

Bar height is how often each margin came up — that is what the half-point across it is worth. marks a key number: one that spikes above the numbers immediately around it. The two are different, so the tallest bar is not always marked. Hover or tap a bar for the detail; the spread columns below carry the market side.

Won by ⇅	Landed % ⇅	Games ⇅	Spike ⇅	Cum % ⇅	Posted ⇅	Push % ⇅
3	15.14%	1116	11.04pt	23.6%	1169	17.9%
7	9.06%	668	5.39pt	47.1%	498	8.2%
6	6.04%	445	1.72pt	38.1%	356	6.7%
10	5.50%	405	3.48pt	58.0%	215	8.4%
4	4.88%	360	-0.17pt	28.4%	342	3.5%
14	4.86%	358	2.96pt	69.6%	90	4.4%
1	4.12%	304	0.05pt	4.3%	546	3.7%
2	4.07%	300	-0.43pt	8.4%	169	3.6%
8	3.74%	276	-2.02pt	50.9%	100	0.0%
5	3.60%	265	-3.96pt	32.0%	165	1.8%
17	3.58%	264	1.79pt	76.8%	16	—
13	2.74%	202	0.73pt	64.7%	73	1.4%
21	2.66%	196	1.51pt	85.0%	—	—
11	2.35%	173	0.14pt	60.3%	80	3.8%
18	2.31%	170	0.18pt	79.1%	4	—
24	2.17%	160	1.08pt	89.4%	1	—
20	2.14%	158	0.41pt	82.4%	1	—
16	2.10%	155	-0.84pt	73.2%	14	—
12	1.68%	124	-2.12pt	62.0%	33	3.0%
28	1.64%	121	0.98pt	94.2%	—	—
9	1.59%	117	-3.03pt	52.5%	153	0.0%
15	1.48%	109	-1.68pt	71.1%	12	—
27	1.28%	94	0.33pt	92.6%	1	—
31	1.18%	87	0.70pt	96.4%	—	—
19	1.17%	86	-1.32pt	80.2%	3	—
23	1.14%	84	-0.51pt	87.2%	—	—
25	1.13%	83	-0.08pt	90.5%	—	—
22	1.06%	78	-1.10pt	86.1%	2	—
26	0.77%	57	-0.69pt	91.3%	—	—
35	0.58%	43	0.27pt	98.3%	—	—

Margins are absolute (won by N, either side) and totals are the combined final score, both including overtime — the way the full-game market settles. Segment views (halves, quarters, periods, first innings) come from the linescore tables, so a segment counts only when every one of its periods is present. All-Star games, preseason and exhibitions are excluded. Posted and Push % come from closing lines, which cover a shorter span than the scores everywhere except the NFL — there, nflverse carries the closing spread and total on every game back to 1999, so the two line up exactly. This is where the numbers actually landed — the half-point across a key number is worth exactly the games in that bar.