NBA · margins & totals

NBA Key Numbers

A −3 and a −3.5 are not the same bet. Where the number sits decides whether you push, and it prices the half-point you pay to move off it. This is where NBA games actually landed — every final margin and every final total, 2003–2027. 6.0% of the last 32,277 games were decided by exactly 7.

The half-point across a number is worth exactly the share of games that land on it, so the Landed % column is the price you should be willing to pay to buy through it. A number is tagged key when it stands at least 1.3× above its neighbours — a real spike, not just a common number. Some sports have no key numbers at all, and the board says so rather than inventing them.

Closing spreadtoavailable 0–30.5

Full game · how often each margin came up32,277 games · 2003–2027 · showing margins 0–26

Bar height is how often each margin came up — that is what the half-point across it is worth. marks a key number: one that spikes above the numbers immediately around it. The two are different, so the tallest bar is not always marked. Hover or tap a bar for the detail; the spread columns below carry the market side.

Won by ⇅	Landed % ⇅	Games ⇅	Spike ⇅	Cum % ⇅	Posted ⇅	Push % ⇅
7	6.03%	1945	0.17pt	41.8%	67	3.0%
5	5.97%	1928	0.29pt	29.9%	70	8.6%
6	5.89%	1902	-0.01pt	35.8%	79	5.1%
8	5.83%	1881	0.20pt	47.6%	54	5.6%
3	5.47%	1767	0.15pt	18.5%	95	2.1%
4	5.41%	1747	-0.27pt	23.9%	90	5.6%
9	5.37%	1733	0.12pt	53.0%	54	1.9%
2	5.23%	1689	0.56pt	13.0%	85	1.2%
10	4.68%	1510	-0.21pt	57.7%	41	4.9%
11	4.40%	1420	0.12pt	62.1%	47	0.0%
1	3.94%	1272	-1.29pt	7.8%	109	9.2%
12	3.89%	1255	-0.11pt	66.0%	31	6.5%
0	3.86%	1246	—	3.9%	1	—
13	3.59%	1159	0.06pt	69.6%	25	0.0%
14	3.17%	1024	-0.08pt	72.7%	28	3.6%
15	2.92%	941	-0.07pt	75.7%	9	—
16	2.79%	902	0.18pt	78.4%	11	—
17	2.31%	747	-0.14pt	80.8%	10	—
18	2.12%	685	0.02pt	82.9%	4	—
19	1.90%	613	-0.09pt	84.8%	5	—
20	1.85%	598	0.05pt	86.6%	—	—
21	1.71%	551	0.08pt	88.3%	—	—
22	1.41%	455	-0.06pt	89.8%	—	—
23	1.24%	400	-0.03pt	91.0%	1	—
24	1.13%	366	-0.04pt	92.1%	—	—
25	1.12%	360	0.13pt	93.2%	—	—
26	0.84%	271	-0.11pt	94.1%	—	—
27	0.79%	254	0.01pt	94.9%	—	—
28	0.71%	230	-0.01pt	95.6%	—	—
29	0.67%	215	0.01pt	96.2%	—	—

Margins are absolute (won by N, either side) and totals are the combined final score, both including overtime — the way the full-game market settles. Segment views (halves, quarters, periods, first innings) come from the linescore tables, so a segment counts only when every one of its periods is present. All-Star games, preseason and exhibitions are excluded. Posted and Push % come from closing lines, which cover a shorter span than the scores everywhere except the NFL — there, nflverse carries the closing spread and total on every game back to 1999, so the two line up exactly. This is where the numbers actually landed — the half-point across a key number is worth exactly the games in that bar.