NBA · margins & totals

NBA Key Numbers

A −3 and a −3.5 are not the same bet. Where the number sits decides whether you push, and it prices the half-point you pay to move off it. This is where NBA games actually landed — every final margin and every final total, 2003–2026. 6.3% of the last 31,005 games were decided by exactly 7.

The half-point across a number is worth exactly the share of games that land on it, so the Landed % column is the price you should be willing to pay to buy through it. A number is tagged key when it stands at least 1.3× above its neighbours — a real spike, not just a common number. Some sports have no key numbers at all, and the board says so rather than inventing them.

Closing spreadtoavailable 0–30.5

Full game · how often each margin came up31,005 games · 2003–2026 · showing margins 0–27

Bar height is how often each margin came up — that is what the half-point across it is worth. marks a key number: one that spikes above the numbers immediately around it. The two are different, so the tallest bar is not always marked. Hover or tap a bar for the detail; the spread columns below carry the market side.

Won by ⇅	Landed % ⇅	Games ⇅	Spike ⇅	Cum % ⇅	Posted ⇅	Push % ⇅
7	6.26%	1940	0.17pt	39.6%	47	2.1%
5	6.21%	1924	0.30pt	27.2%	52	5.8%
6	6.12%	1898	-0.01pt	33.4%	48	4.2%
8	6.05%	1876	0.20pt	45.7%	41	7.3%
3	5.68%	1762	0.16pt	15.4%	71	2.8%
4	5.61%	1739	-0.29pt	21.0%	65	7.7%
9	5.58%	1731	0.13pt	51.2%	39	0.0%
2	5.43%	1683	0.58pt	9.7%	65	1.5%
10	4.86%	1506	-0.22pt	56.1%	32	6.3%
11	4.57%	1417	0.13pt	60.7%	33	0.0%
1	4.09%	1268	-1.34pt	4.3%	84	7.1%
12	4.03%	1248	-0.13pt	64.7%	19	—
13	3.74%	1159	0.08pt	68.4%	17	—
14	3.30%	1023	-0.08pt	71.7%	17	—
15	3.03%	939	-0.07pt	74.8%	5	—
16	2.90%	899	0.19pt	77.7%	8	—
17	2.40%	744	-0.15pt	80.1%	8	—
18	2.20%	682	0.01pt	82.3%	1	—
19	1.97%	611	-0.09pt	84.2%	2	—
20	1.92%	596	0.05pt	86.2%	—	—
21	1.77%	548	0.08pt	87.9%	—	—
22	1.46%	452	-0.07pt	89.4%	—	—
23	1.29%	399	-0.03pt	90.7%	—	—
24	1.17%	363	-0.05pt	91.8%	—	—
25	1.15%	358	0.13pt	93.0%	—	—
26	0.87%	270	-0.11pt	93.9%	—	—
27	0.82%	253	0.01pt	94.7%	—	—
28	0.74%	230	-0.01pt	95.4%	—	—
29	0.69%	214	0.00pt	96.1%	—	—
30	0.63%	195	0.04pt	96.7%	—	—

Margins are absolute (won by N, either side) and totals are the combined final score, both including overtime — the way the full-game market settles. Segment views (halves, quarters, periods, first innings) come from the linescore tables, so a segment counts only when every one of its periods is present. All-Star games, preseason and exhibitions are excluded. Posted and Push % come from closing lines, which cover a shorter span than the scores everywhere except the NFL — there, nflverse carries the closing spread and total on every game back to 1999, so the two line up exactly. This is where the numbers actually landed — the half-point across a key number is worth exactly the games in that bar.