MLB · margins & totals

MLB Key Numbers

A −3 and a −3.5 are not the same bet. Where the number sits decides whether you push, and it prices the half-point you pay to move off it. This is where MLB games actually landed — every final margin and every final total, 2015–2026. 27.9% of the last 27,678 games were decided by exactly 1.

The half-point across a number is worth exactly the share of games that land on it, so the Landed % column is the price you should be willing to pay to buy through it. A number is tagged key when it stands at least 1.3× above its neighbours — a real spike, not just a common number. Some sports have no key numbers at all, and the board says so rather than inventing them.

Closing spreadtoavailable 1.5–2.5

Full game · how often each margin came up27,678 games · 2015–2026

Bar height is how often each margin came up — that is what the half-point across it is worth. marks a key number: one that spikes above the numbers immediately around it. The two are different, so the tallest bar is not always marked. Hover or tap a bar for the detail; the spread columns below carry the market side.

Won by ⇅	Landed % ⇅	Games ⇅	Spike ⇅	Cum % ⇅	Posted ⇅	Push % ⇅
1	27.88%	7716	—	27.9%	—	—
2	18.09%	5007	3.79pt	46.0%	—	—
3	14.30%	3957	-0.52pt	60.3%	—	—
4	11.55%	3197	0.21pt	71.8%	—	—
5	8.39%	2323	-0.46pt	80.2%	—	—
6	6.15%	1701	-0.29pt	86.4%	—	—
7	4.48%	1240	-0.10pt	90.8%	—	—
8	3.02%	835	-0.26pt	93.9%	—	—
9	2.07%	574	-0.15pt	95.9%	—	—
10	1.43%	395	-0.05pt	97.4%	—	—
11	0.89%	246	-0.10pt	98.2%	—	—
12	0.56%	154	-0.14pt	98.8%	—	—
13	0.49%	137	0.08pt	99.3%	—	—
14	0.28%	78	-0.04pt	99.6%	—	—
15	0.15%	41	-0.13pt	99.7%	—	—
16	0.10%	29	—	99.8%	—	—
17	0.07%	18	—	99.9%	—	—
19	0.03%	8	—	99.9%	—	—
18	0.03%	7	—	99.9%	—	—
21	0.02%	6	—	100.0%	—	—
20	0.01%	4	—	100.0%	—	—
22	0.01%	2	—	100.0%	—	—
0	0.00%	1	—	0.0%	—	—
23	0.00%	1	—	100.0%	—	—
24	0.00%	1	—	100.0%	—	—

Books never post this spread on a whole number — it is 1.5 on 99.6% of games, so the bet can never push and the Posted and Push columns stay empty. The distribution still tells you what the alternate rungs are worth.

Margins are absolute (won by N, either side) and totals are the combined final score, both including overtime — the way the full-game market settles. Segment views (halves, quarters, periods, first innings) come from the linescore tables, so a segment counts only when every one of its periods is present. All-Star games, preseason and exhibitions are excluded. Posted and Push % come from closing lines, which cover a shorter span than the scores everywhere except the NFL — there, nflverse carries the closing spread and total on every game back to 1999, so the two line up exactly. This is where the numbers actually landed — the half-point across a key number is worth exactly the games in that bar.