CFB · margins & totals

CFB Key Numbers

A −3 and a −3.5 are not the same bet. Where the number sits decides whether you push, and it prices the half-point you pay to move off it. This is where CFB games actually landed — every final margin and every final total, 2023–2026. 7.8% of the last 13,603 games were decided by exactly 3.

The half-point across a number is worth exactly the share of games that land on it, so the Landed % column is the price you should be willing to pay to buy through it. A number is tagged key when it stands at least 1.3× above its neighbours — a real spike, not just a common number. Some sports have no key numbers at all, and the board says so rather than inventing them.

Closing spreadtoavailable 1–59.5

Full game · how often each margin came up13,603 games · 2023–2026 · showing margins 1–34

Bar height is how often each margin came up — that is what the half-point across it is worth. marks a key number: one that spikes above the numbers immediately around it. The two are different, so the tallest bar is not always marked. Hover or tap a bar for the detail; the spread columns below carry the market side.

Won by ⇅	Landed % ⇅	Games ⇅	Spike ⇅	Cum % ⇅	Posted ⇅	Push % ⇅
3	7.81%	1062	4.86pt	14.1%	158	23.4%
7	7.15%	972	4.80pt	29.4%	93	12.9%
14	4.11%	559	2.71pt	46.1%	57	1.8%
10	3.99%	543	2.32pt	37.0%	55	9.1%
21	3.68%	500	2.29pt	60.8%	26	11.5%
1	3.30%	449	0.60pt	3.6%	58	6.9%
4	3.19%	434	0.46pt	17.3%	48	6.3%
28	3.07%	418	2.01pt	73.8%	10	—
17	2.98%	406	1.58pt	51.9%	23	0.0%
6	2.77%	377	-0.10pt	22.2%	45	6.7%
24	2.72%	370	1.42pt	66.1%	21	4.8%
2	2.70%	367	-0.55pt	6.3%	38	0.0%
8	2.56%	348	-0.82pt	31.9%	11	—
5	2.14%	291	-3.03pt	19.4%	22	4.5%
35	2.10%	286	1.35pt	83.2%	5	—
11	2.04%	277	0.54pt	39.0%	8	—
18	1.95%	265	0.35pt	53.9%	4	—
27	1.90%	259	0.51pt	70.8%	5	—
20	1.84%	250	0.15pt	57.1%	4	—
31	1.75%	238	0.79pt	77.5%	3	—
25	1.71%	232	0.16pt	67.8%	7	—
13	1.69%	230	-0.05pt	42.0%	20	5.0%
42	1.55%	211	1.07pt	89.8%	5	—
34	1.54%	210	0.50pt	81.1%	3	—
15	1.45%	197	-0.89pt	47.6%	10	—
22	1.42%	193	-0.86pt	62.2%	2	—
16	1.36%	185	-1.11pt	48.9%	7	—
19	1.36%	185	-1.11pt	55.2%	9	—
32	1.32%	179	0.10pt	78.8%	1	—
12	1.31%	178	-1.71pt	40.3%	14	—

Margins are absolute (won by N, either side) and totals are the combined final score, both including overtime — the way the full-game market settles. Segment views (halves, quarters, periods, first innings) come from the linescore tables, so a segment counts only when every one of its periods is present. All-Star games, preseason and exhibitions are excluded. Posted and Push % come from closing lines, which cover a shorter span than the scores everywhere except the NFL — there, nflverse carries the closing spread and total on every game back to 1999, so the two line up exactly. This is where the numbers actually landed — the half-point across a key number is worth exactly the games in that bar.