SGPLAB

NFL · book juice by market

NFL Hold

The hold (juice) every sportsbook charges on each NFL market — the book’s theoretical margin, devigged from closing two-way prices. Lower is cheaper for you. In the matrix, each market row is shaded green = cheapest → red = priciest across books, so you read a row left-to-right to see who is taking the least on that bet.

Player props run far more expensive than game lines — the same book will take ~4–5% on a spread and 6–12% on a prop. That spread across books is the single biggest cost most bettors never price in. This is what each book charges — shop the cheapest one for the market you actually bet.

NFL · hold % by market × book · closing lines
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MarketDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMtheScore BetCaesarsBetRiversFanaticsHard RockFliffPrizePicksUnderdogNovigProphetXKalshiPolymarket
Moneyline4.1%3.9%4.2%3.9%4.2%4.8%4.3%4.4%6.1%··0.6%0.6%1.2%1.0%
Moneyline (3-way)5.0%·····9.1%·9.9%······
Spread4.5%4.7%4.2%4.4%4.5%5.1%4.5%4.6%6.3%··2.4%1.4%1.1%8.5%
Game Total4.6%4.6%4.6%4.4%4.5%5.0%4.6%4.7%6.5%··1.9%1.6%1.3%4.3%
Team Total·5.5%4.3%6.1%6.6%4.7%··5.8%······
Pass Yards6.0%4.9%6.6%6.3%7.1%6.8%6.5%6.5%8.9%13.5%13.5%7.4%7.9%··
Pass TDs5.8%5.8%6.5%6.0%7.0%6.7%6.3%6.3%9.2%13.5%13.5%4.5%4.3%··
Pass Attempts6.0%6.2%6.5%6.3%7.2%6.4%6.6%6.3%9.2%13.5%13.5%5.5%6.7%··
Completions6.0%6.1%6.6%6.4%7.2%6.4%6.6%6.3%9.3%13.5%13.5%5.0%4.9%··
Interceptions5.9%6.2%6.6%5.8%7.2%6.5%·6.3%9.3%13.5%13.5%3.7%4.0%··
Rush Yards6.0%5.0%6.5%6.3%7.1%6.8%6.6%6.3%9.3%13.5%13.5%7.1%5.9%··
Rush TDs········8.8%·13.5%····
Longest Rush6.4%5.5%6.5%6.4%·6.5%·6.3%9.3%13.5%13.5%9.1%5.3%··
Receptions5.8%5.9%6.6%6.5%7.1%6.5%6.7%6.3%9.3%13.5%13.5%5.4%4.5%··
Rec Yards6.0%5.0%6.5%6.4%7.1%6.8%6.6%6.3%9.2%13.5%13.5%7.1%6.0%··
Rec TDs········8.7%······
Longest Reception6.4%6.3%6.5%6.3%7.2%6.5%·6.4%9.3%13.5%13.5%8.4%5.4%··
Rush + Rec Yards6.3%6.1%6.5%6.5%7.2%6.7%·6.3%9.3%13.5%13.5%10.0%5.9%··
Pass + Rush Yards6.1%6.0%6.6%6.5%7.2%6.4%·5.3%9.0%13.5%13.5%12.0%5.7%··
Kicking Points6.0%·6.6%6.5%7.2%6.2%6.4%6.4%9.3%13.5%13.5%5.5%···
Field Goals5.9%·6.6%7.1%7.2%·6.3%6.3%9.5%13.5%13.5%5.5%5.3%··
Extra Points5.8%·6.6%5.9%7.2%·6.3%6.2%9.1%13.5%13.5%····
Def Int···5.6%····9.1%······
Rush Att5.9%6.3%6.6%6.4%7.2%6.2%6.6%6.2%9.3%13.5%13.5%5.3%4.8%··
Sacks5.5%··6.6%·6.2%·6.0%8.6%13.5%13.5%·6.4%··
Solo Tackles6.0%·6.6%6.0%···6.2%9.0%·13.5%·9.0%··
Tackles6.0%·6.6%6.5%7.2%6.3%·6.3%9.3%13.5%13.5%6.4%6.3%··

Hold = (Σ implied − 1) / Σ implied over a market’s complete outcome set, averaged per (book, market) at the closing line, main full-game markets only (alternate ladders and period lines are priced differently by design). A market needs 30+ instances to appear. Pick’em apps (PrizePicks, Underdog) post a fixed payout rather than a quoted two-way price, so their figure is the cost of the pick’em structure itself and is identical on every market. No-vig exchanges (Novig, ProphetX, Kalshi, Polymarket) charge a commission on winnings instead, which this margin does not include.